Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:48:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BB 0xbb56…818b other 26 markets active 5d ago coverage 559d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$61 (+8%) realized +$61 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 25L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% $0
sports 28% +$61
politics 4% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 26 +0.4% -9.1% 4% 4% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 4% -2.0%
10% -17.8% 4% -11.4%
15% -25.8% 4% -19.9%
20% -33.1% 4% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$0 · ×2748.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×183.25 per $1 lost it wins $183.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

559d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage559d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $6 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 16 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $5 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 25 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 13 $1 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Aug 13 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Jul 09 $1 $0 +0%
Brighton & Hove Albion wins the Premier League? Jun 08 $0 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. Oilers Jun 07 $52 +$61 +117%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Spain win Eurovision 2025? May 13 $1 $0 -0%
West Ham United wins the Premier League? May 13 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 27 $1 $0 -6%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Feb 17 $1 $0 -5%
Newcastle United wins the Premier League? Dec 13 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2025 NBA Finals? Dec 12 $0 $0 +0%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 02 $463 $0 +0%
Will Missouri win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 02 $81 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $6 4d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 29d
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $6 29d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $6 51d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $6 81d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $6 94d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $6 94d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5 114d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5 114d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $6 144d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $6 144d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 177d
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 177d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 205d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 205d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $6 233d
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $6 233d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 262d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5 262d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 309d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 309d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 309d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 344d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 344d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 344d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $1 377d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes $0 377d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY Yes $1 377d
Panthers vs. Oilers BUY Panthers 46¢ $52 377d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 69 history records