Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:23:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb58…f580 crypto 280 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$62 (-1%) realized −$62 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate47%131W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$27
14 days−$25
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% −$88
world 13% +$63
other 1% −$37
politics 1% −$28
finance 1% −$12
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -28.8% -35.6% 57% 0% -18.3%
≤30d 41 -15.3% -23.4% 49% 24% -13.8%
≤90d 133 -12.5% -20.9% 46% 27% -12.9%
all 280 -15.2% -23.2% 47% 24% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 24% -10.8%
10% -30.6% 15% -19.3%
15% -37.3% 10% -27.1%
20% -43.4% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$62
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses131 / 149
Open positions0
Markets (closed)280 / 280
History coverage139d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 280 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -46%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $111 +$10 +9%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $41 −$29 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $9 +$4 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $6 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $2 $0 -17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $7 +$3 +49%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $2 $0 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $1 $0 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 +$4 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $37 −$4 -10%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $2 +$1 +37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $32 −$4 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 28 $1 +$1 +68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $21 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 27? May 27 $1 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $19 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 23? May 24 $3 +$8 +246%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o May 23 $1 $0 +48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 22? May 22 $1 −$1 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 21? May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 21? May 21 $7 −$1 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 20 $11 +$5 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 19 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18? May 18 $1 $0 +23%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 16? May 16 $2 +$8 +367%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? May 16 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 16 $3 +$1 +46%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 14 $3 −$3 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 11 $60 +$3 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 09 $56 −$14 -26%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10? May 09 $1 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 08 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 8? May 08 $1 −$1 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 83¢ $30 53m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 60¢ $23 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 50¢ $23 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 67¢ $33 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 12¢ $1 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 19¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL Yes 81¢ $34 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 70¢ $31 13h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $31 24h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 91¢ $30 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 79¢ $27 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 77¢ $27 25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 93¢ $33 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 86¢ $33 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 76¢ $31 26h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 70¢ $16 27h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 66¢ $15 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 32h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? BUY No 79¢ $8 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? SELL No 14¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? BUY No 12¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? SELL No 1¢ $0 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? SELL No 29¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? BUY No 27¢ $1 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? BUY No 4¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1123 history records