Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:31:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbb5d…f528 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$48 (+11%) realized +$27 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 17d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$56
crypto 14% +$20
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +5.6% -4.5% 50% 50% +37.9%
≤30d 5 -15.5% -23.6% 40% 40% +27.1%
≤90d 5 -15.5% -23.6% 40% 40% +27.1%
all 5 -15.5% -23.6% 40% 40% +27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 40% +27.1%
10% -30.9% 40% +14.9%
15% -37.6% 40% +3.8%
20% -43.7% 40% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +40% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$5 · ×6.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.45 per $1 lost it wins $4.45
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Open positions12
Markets (closed)5 / 17
History coverage17d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 94¢ $50 $81 +$31 (+61%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-29%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 12¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+38%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+18%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $62 +$38 +62%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 −$2 -33%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -69%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $100 4h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 4h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 17h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 37h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $51 4d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 11d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 11d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 11d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 11d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $31 11d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 11d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 11d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 11d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 11d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 11d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 11d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $305.96 · official $305.97 (match) · 36 history records