Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:07:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb5d…89e0 crypto 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$98 (-4%) realized −$311 · open +$213
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate24%22W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day44.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$341
other 35% +$110
sports 2% −$32
weather 1% −$8
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-39.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 90 -33.6% -39.9% 24% 21% -30.1%
≤30d 90 -33.6% -39.9% 24% 21% -30.1%
≤90d 90 -33.6% -39.9% 24% 21% -30.1%
all 90 -33.6% -39.9% 24% 21% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.9% 21% -30.1%
10% ← realistic here -45.7% 21% -36.8%
15% -50.9% 21% -42.9%
20% -55.7% 16% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$15 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized−$311
Unrealized+$213
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses22 / 68
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)90 / 91
History coverage6d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day44.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 66¢ $380 $593 +$213 (+56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 22 $114 −$114 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 22 $59 −$34 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 22 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $125 +$60 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $41 −$9 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $19 −$13 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$4 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $37 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$9 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$7 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 29, 2026? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $39 −$3 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $66 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$41 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 20 $65 −$62 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 20 $40 −$38 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $24 +$167 +683%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $137 −$137 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$19 +91%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -49%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -52%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $25 −$16 -62%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $14 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $8 +$9 +105%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 19 $36 −$18 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$32 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 25¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $61 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $125 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $83 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $11 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 41¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $83 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $20 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.04 · official $593.04 (match) · 321 history records