Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:16:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbb5d…85db crypto 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5,898 (+8%) realized +$5,291 · open +$607
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate68%51W / 24L
Whale WR63%big bets
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$948per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$313est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$16,697now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,925
7 days+$4,771
14 days+$4,771
30 days+$4,771
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 48% +$133
sports 31% +$7,262
world 12% −$576
other 6% −$2,248
politics 2% +$821
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +15.1% +4.2% 60% 60% +21.0%
≤30d 5 +15.1% +4.2% 60% 60% +21.0%
≤90d 59 +3.6% -6.2% 68% 64% -2.2%
all 75 +9.0% -1.4% 68% 61% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 61% -2.4%
10% -10.8% 51% -11.7%
15% -19.5% 39% -20.2%
20% -27.4% 23% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 63% (≥$849) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$387 vs −$623 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$16,697
Realized+$5,291
Unrealized+$607
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses51 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)63%
Est. fees paid−$313
Open positions6
Markets (closed)75 / 81
History coverage590d
Avg bet$948
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Spirit 46¢ 50¢ $5,000 $5,489 +$489 (+10%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $4,000 $4,067 +$67 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 76¢ 76¢ $3,500 $3,523 +$23 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 71¢ 70¢ $3,000 $2,979 −$21 (-1%)
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 86¢ $500 $554 +$54 (+11%)
Will Dreamcash launch a token by September 30, 2026? No 67¢ 64¢ $90 $85 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $5,067 +$4,023 +79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2,029 −$98 -5%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $2,028 −$2,000 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3,542 +$2,297 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,512 +$548 +36%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $1,500 +$663 +44%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? Apr 10 $5,000 −$726 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 04 $500 +$209 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Apr 04 $500 +$97 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Apr 04 $616 +$101 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Apr 04 $600 +$279 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Apr 04 $600 +$208 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Apr 04 $600 +$44 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Apr 04 $1,000 +$753 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Apr 04 $700 −$690 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Apr 04 $600 −$591 -99%
USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch? Apr 04 $400 −$16 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 04 $800 +$383 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Apr 04 $800 +$601 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Apr 04 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 04 $500 +$302 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 04 $700 +$168 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Apr 04 $600 +$290 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 04 $600 +$446 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Apr 04 $496 +$535 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Apr 04 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Apr 04 $700 +$161 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Apr 04 $600 +$75 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Apr 04 $700 +$222 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 04 $600 +$268 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 04 $498 −$498 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 04 $756 +$443 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 04 $600 +$487 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 04 $600 +$148 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 04 $780 −$780 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Apr 04 $500 +$119 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 04 $600 +$363 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 04 $900 +$203 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 04 $700 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 04 $700 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Apr 04 $650 −$650 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Apr 04 $600 −$600 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 04 $1,000 +$369 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 04 $600 +$105 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Apr 04 $1,291 +$406 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Apr 04 $1,000 +$516 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 04 $900 −$900 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Apr 04 $910 +$390 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 04 $669 +$768 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Apr 04 $850 −$850 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 71¢ $3,026 1h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) BUY Spirit 46¢ $5,081 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 76¢ $3,525 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 50¢ $1,931 17h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $2,029 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $2,028 20h
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 55¢ $5,067 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $3,542 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $1,512 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $4,000 69d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? SELL No 65¢ $4,274 69d
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t BUY Yes 69¢ $1,500 75d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? BUY No 76¢ $5,000 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $500 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $100 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $396 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $100 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $400 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $116 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $500 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $600 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $600 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $100 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $100 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $100 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $10 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $700 75d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $100 75d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,697.37 · official $16,698.71 (match) · 423 history records