Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:19:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
BB 0xbb5e…ad2c crypto 382 markets active 2h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$329 (+2%) realized +$325 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate92%339W / 30L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$244now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$14
14 days+$28
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$109
politics 16% +$47
world 11% +$37
finance 9% −$47
other 8% +$171
weather 2% +$5
tech 1% −$36
culture 1% +$4
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.0% -5.9% 100% 0% -5.9%
≤30d 58 +0.2% -9.3% 86% 2% -9.3%
≤90d 366 +1.5% -8.2% 92% 1% -7.7%
all 369 +1.5% -8.2% 92% 1% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 1% -7.7%
10% -16.9% 1% -16.5%
15% -25.0% 1% -24.6%
20% -32.3% 1% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$14 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$244
Realized+$325
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses339 / 30
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)369 / 382
History coverage128d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 369 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%? No 97¢ 100¢ $120 $123 +$3 (+3%)
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 26? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? Down 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? No 94¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ assists No 94¢ 95¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? No 96¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? No 95¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 Under 96¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 0 Iraq? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Idrissa Gana Guèye: 1+ goals No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 92¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? No 94¢ 91¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 24 $120 +$7 +6%
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary Jun 24 $120 +$3 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 20 $120 +$4 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $120 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $120 +$4 +3%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 17 $120 −$27 -22%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $120 +$7 +6%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $120 +$7 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $120 +$5 +4%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $120 +$5 +4%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $120 +$4 +3%
Will Ken Paxton win the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff by betw Jun 13 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 11 $80 +$4 +6%
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? Jun 10 $120 +$4 +3%
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic Jun 10 $120 +$5 +4%
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? Jun 09 $120 +$4 +3%
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $120 +$4 +3%
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $120 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 6? Jun 08 $120 +$8 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $120 +$3 +2%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $120 +$3 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $735 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $120 −$11 -9%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $120 −$28 -23%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$4 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$6 +6%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on June 4? Jun 04 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombi Jun 04 $80 $0 +1%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $100 +$3 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Broadcom (AVGO) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 03 $100 +$4 +4%
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 03 $160 −$6 -4%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 02 $80 +$3 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $80 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 1? Jun 01 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $80 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $80 −$59 -73%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $80 −$40 -49%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $80 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $80 +$4 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $80 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $80 +$2 +3%
Dow Jones (DJIA) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $80 +$3 +4%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima May 29 $30 +$1 +3%
Solana Up or Down on May 18? May 29 $30 +$1 +5%
Rocket Lab (RKLB) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 29? May 29 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11AM ET May 29 $80 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $80 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET May 29 $82 +$50 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 28? May 28 $80 +$5 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on June 26? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 26? BUY Down 95¢ $10 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 0 France? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Jørgen Strand Larsen: 1+ assists BUY No 94¢ $10 2h
Idrissa Gana Guèye: 1+ goals BUY No 94¢ $10 2h
Norway vs. France: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 96¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 France? BUY No 94¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? BUY No 95¢ $10 2h
Senegal vs. Iraq: Neither team to score first? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? BUY No 94¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 0 Iraq? BUY No 96¢ $10 2h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio BUY Yes 94¢ $120 2d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin SELL Yes 75¢ $94 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? BUY No 97¢ $120 9d
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin BUY Yes 95¢ $120 9d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $120 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 94¢ $120 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $120 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $120 11d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 96¢ $120 11d
Will Jermaine Johnson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic BUY Yes 96¢ $120 16d
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary BUY No 98¢ $120 17d
Will Mallory Dittmer be the Democratic nominee for SC-05? BUY Yes 97¢ $120 17d
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? BUY Yes 97¢ $120 19d
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? BUY No 97¢ $120 19d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY No 97¢ $120 19d
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY No 97¢ $120 19d
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A BUY Yes 96¢ $120 19d
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 1-June 7? BUY No 97¢ $120 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $243.54 · official $243.54 (match) · 770 history records