trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 8 | +0.8% | -8.8% | 25% | 0% | -8.8% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.1% | -9.5% | 22% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 12 | +0.5% | -9.1% | 25% | 8% | -9.4% |
| all | 27 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 48% | 7% | -9.2% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.1% | 7% | -9.2% |
| 10% | -16.9% | 0% | -17.9% |
| 15% | -24.9% | 0% | -25.8% |
| 20% | -32.3% | 0% | -33.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | No | 89¢ | 90¢ | $32 | $32 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? | Jun 23 | $48 | $0 | +0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? | Jun 23 | $44 | $0 | +0% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | Jun 21 | $41 | $0 | +0% |
| Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? | Jun 19 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Cuban regime falls in 2026? | Jun 18 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 | Jun 18 | $41 | +$3 | +6% |
| Israel closes its airspace by June 30? | Jun 18 | $82 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 17 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | May 25 | $49 | −$3 | -6% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 24 | $37 | −$5 | -14% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 24 | $47 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? | May 23 | $32 | +$6 | +19% |
| Will Inter Milan win the FIFA Club World Cup? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +5% |
| Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? | Jun 27 | $2 | $0 | +19% |
| Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? | Jun 09 | $6 | $0 | -2% |
| Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jun 08 | $6 | $0 | -5% |
| Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 | Jun 07 | $8 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | May 29 | $2 | $0 | +8% |
| Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? | May 09 | $2 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? | May 06 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will MrBeast buy TikTok before July? | Apr 05 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? | Apr 04 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum | Apr 03 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will CDU/CSU and SPD form the next German Government? | Apr 01 | $15 | +$1 | +4% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? | Mar 27 | $15 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 25 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $14 | +$1 | +4% |