Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:34:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb65…1407 world 129 markets active 1h ago coverage 39d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$70 (+4%) realized +$38 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate47%41W / 47L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$63
14 days−$8
30 days+$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$12
crypto 23% +$67
politics 9% −$4
other 6% −$6
economics 2% −$2
tech 2% +$4
finance 1% −$1
sports 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -20.6% -28.2% 53% 33% -27.7%
≤30d 54 +24.4% +12.6% 48% 24% -3.4%
≤90d 88 +7.4% -2.9% 47% 20% -7.7%
all 88 +7.4% -2.9% 47% 20% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 20% -7.7%
10% -12.2% 15% -16.6%
15% -20.6% 14% -24.6%
20% -28.4% 11% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 55% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$385
Realized+$38
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses41 / 47
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions41
Markets (closed)88 / 129
History coverage39d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 90¢ $49 $53 +$5 (+9%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 83¢ 100¢ $28 $34 +$6 (+21%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 15¢ 35¢ $12 $28 +$16 (+139%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 26¢ 76¢ $8 $22 +$15 (+192%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? No 37¢ 99¢ $8 $21 +$13 (+165%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Yes 54¢ 100¢ $9 $17 +$7 (+83%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 30¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 97¢ 95¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-2%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 20¢ 78¢ $4 $15 +$11 (+292%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 25¢ 28¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 96¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 84¢ 92¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+9%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 97¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 37¢ 86¢ $4 $9 +$5 (+132%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 82¢ 99¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+21%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes 33¢ 24¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-25%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 36¢ 32¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 52¢ 90¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+73%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 23¢ 33¢ $4 $5 +$2 (+43%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 9¢ 18¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+109%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 31¢ 90¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+188%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 14 $9 +$2 +19%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $5 $0 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $22 +$4 +19%
Will SpaceX list on the NASDAQ? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SEX? Jun 13 $11 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $52 −$1 -3%
Worst Cup: Fakers FC vs. Infamous FC Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$1 +15%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $15 −$6 -38%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $13 −$8 -62%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $19 +$11 +61%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $136 −$53 -39%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $9 +$17 +198%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $34 +$2 +6%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $42 −$4 -11%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? Jun 04 $22 $0 +1%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $215 +$83 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $11 −$11 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $10 −$8 -77%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12 +$1 +6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $38 +$14 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $26 +$8 +31%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $20 −$12 -58%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $12 +$1 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $10 +$38 +376%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $4 +$91 +2311%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $10 −$5 -48%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $12 +$6 +52%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $3 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $15 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $117 −$8 -6%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $6 +$13 +218%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 19 $20 −$4 -22%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $6 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 17 $10 $0 -3%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 47m
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $3 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 87¢ $2 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 14h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 21h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 36¢ $1 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL Yes 40¢ $4 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 SELL Yes 30¢ $1 32h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 BUY Yes 21¢ $1 33h
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 41h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $1 44h
US strike on Colombia by December 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 45h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 46h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $1 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? SELL Yes 99¢ $14 2d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? BUY No 10¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $384.87 · official $384.81 (match) · 750 history records