Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BB 0xbb6a…494a politics 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 28L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$504per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$7
14 days−$7
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$5
politics 25% −$6
crypto 15% −$3
world 8% −$1
culture 7% −$2
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,007) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$1 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage79d
Avg bet$504
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $1,244 $0 -0%
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,211 −$1 -0%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 18 $1,237 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? Jun 18 $1,172 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $1,270 −$3 -0%
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,007 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 20 $52 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $918 $0 -0%
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? May 20 $918 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $944 −$3 -0%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House May 19 $908 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 19 $978 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $30 $0 -1%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Espá win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 09 $42 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 09 $28 $0 -0%
Will Won Hee-ryong win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Apr 05 $113 $0 -0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 05 $26 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $51 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $125 $0 -0%
Will Germany strike Iran by April 30? Apr 01 $37 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $54 7m
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $13 16m
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $29 34m
Will Darren Jones be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $12 55m
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $917 1h
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $292 1h
Will Solana dip to $30 in June? BUY No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,211 1h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? SELL Yes 100¢ $72 23h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,235 23h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 23h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,192 25h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $27 25h
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $29 25h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 25h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $904 25h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 26h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $363 26h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $1,270 26h
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,006 29d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 29d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 29d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $940 29d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 29d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 29d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $178 29d
Will Nir Barkat be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $32 29d
Will the Athletics win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $711 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.88 · official $40.88 (match) · 92 history records