Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:45:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

BB 0xbb6b…42a9 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$70 (+18%) realized +$70 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip

Net edge+2%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$95per market

Trades / day10.0pace

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+10.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+21.9%	+10.3%	33%	33%	+9.8%
≤30d	3	+21.9%	+10.3%	33%	33%	+9.8%
≤90d	3	+21.9%	+10.3%	33%	33%	+9.8%
all	3	+21.9%	+10.3%	33%	33%	+9.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+10.3%	33%	+9.8%
10%	-0.3%	33%	-0.8%
15%	-9.9%	33%	-10.3%
20%	-18.7%	33%	-19.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +21% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +22% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$100 vs −$24 · ×4.19 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.09 per $1 lost it wins $2.09

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$129

Realized+$70

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$95

Trades / day10.0

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	20¢	20¢	$129	$129	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Jun 23	$104	−$28	-26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 23	$62	−$20	-33%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$80	+$100	+125%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	20¢	$133	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	SELL Down	29¢	$77	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	BUY Down	36¢	$104	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	SELL Down	1¢	$2	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Down	13¢	$27	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	SELL Up	77¢	$22	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	SELL Up	45¢	$18	2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$35	2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	SELL Yes	33¢	$181	2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	14¢	$80	3h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.09 · official $129.09 (match) · 10 history records