Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:55:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BB 0xbb6b…b0b9 sports 324 markets active 0h ago coverage 696d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$8,678 (+5%) realized +$8,652 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate75%240W / 82L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$562per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$784now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days−$428
14 days−$424
30 days−$448
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% +$8,185
other 5% −$403
crypto 3% +$726
world 1% +$167
politics 0% +$5
culture 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -11.9% -20.3% 73% 60% -17.6%
≤30d 61 -0.8% -10.2% 77% 61% -12.1%
≤90d 88 -4.6% -13.7% 73% 58% -17.5%
all 322 +4.2% -5.7% 75% 64% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 64% -4.6%
10% -14.7% 37% -13.7%
15% -23.0% 21% -22.1%
20% -30.5% 13% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$632) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$151 vs −$338 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

696d coverage
Net worth$784
Realized+$8,652
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses240 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions2
Markets (closed)322 / 324
History coverage696d
Avg bet$562
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 322 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Under 86¢ 94¢ $543 $597 +$54 (+10%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 77¢ 68¢ $214 $187 −$28 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $246 +$54 +22%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $626 +$74 +12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 −$102 -95%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $477 +$72 +15%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $871 −$871 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $535 +$38 +7%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $244 +$56 +23%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $406 +$44 +11%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $51 +$16 +32%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $154 +$8 +5%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $220 +$88 +40%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $307 +$93 +30%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $471 +$92 +20%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $418 +$54 +13%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $350 +$68 +19%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $9 +$1 +12%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $229 −$94 -41%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 5.5 Jun 09 $213 +$25 +12%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $369 +$59 +16%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $244 +$116 +48%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $75 +$13 +18%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $53 +$20 +37%
Mexico vs. Serbia: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $173 −$173 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $112 −$112 -100%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $80 +$11 +14%
Argentina vs. Honduras: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $78 +$2 +2%
Brazil vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $67 +$11 +16%
United States vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $13 +$2 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $61 +$5 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 04 $154 −$2 -1%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $644 −$644 -100%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $133 +$18 +14%
Cambodia vs. Bhutan: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $226 +$29 +13%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $541 +$76 +14%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 1.5 Jun 03 $139 −$42 -30%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $403 +$41 +10%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 0.5 Jun 03 $360 −$58 -16%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $644 +$80 +12%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $360 +$29 +8%
Morocco vs. Madagascar: O/U 1.5 Jun 02 $320 +$17 +5%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 5.5 Jun 01 $570 +$56 +10%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5 Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Türkiye vs. North Macedonia: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $530 +$66 +12%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 2.5 Jun 01 $432 +$96 +22%
Slovakia vs. Malta: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $408 +$26 +6%
Will Bitcoin hit $70k or $90k first? Jun 01 $332 +$16 +5%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 0.5 May 26 $223 −$223 -100%
Inter Miami CF vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 3.5 May 25 $2 $0 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $1 8m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 94¢ $164 8m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 9m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $45 13m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $11 14m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $7 14m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $41 14m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 87¢ $30 14m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $150 16m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $45 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $7 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $0 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 87¢ $87 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $82 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 0.5 BUY Over 82¢ $245 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $241 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 2h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $231 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $71 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Czechia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $4 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 89¢ $223 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $26 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 86¢ $130 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $549 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 85¢ $17 4h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 71¢ $107 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $136 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $119 4h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $222 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $784.18 · official $784.18 (match) · 2483 history records