Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T11:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BB 0xbb6c…1eea politics 142 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$24 (+0%) realized +$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 125L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$18
politics 39% −$21
sports 9% +$59
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 129 -0.7% -10.2% 7% 4% -9.7%
all 141 +3.9% -6.0% 11% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 8% -9.5%
10% -15.0% 6% -18.1%
15% -23.2% 5% -26.1%
20% -30.7% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +8% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×8.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 125
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)141 / 142
History coverage114d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 141 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $861 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $553 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 30 $559 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $507 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $207 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $210 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $244 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $264 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 15 $298 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $548 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $452 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $280 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 12 $207 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $240 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 11 $247 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $225 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $252 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $218 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $254 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $277 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 04 $296 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 03 $308 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $598 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 30 $252 $0 -0%
Will Butch Ware win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $217 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $512 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $290 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $799 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $288 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $232 $0 -0%
Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $262 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $281 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 22 $241 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $261 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $515 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $24 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 1h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 3h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 10h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $49 4d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $49 5d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $32 7d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $32 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $27 10d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $27 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 11d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $48 14d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $24 15d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $290 19d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $291 22d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $281 23d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $281 24d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $201 24d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $201 25d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $207 25d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $207 26d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $275 26d
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $275 26d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $210 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.99 · official $23.99 (match) · 406 history records