Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:27:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
BB 0xbb6c…d38e sports 352 markets active 1h ago coverage 103d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$11,342 (-10%) realized −$11,387 · open +$45
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%191W / 157L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$338per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1,156est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,035now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,209
7 days−$3,493
14 days−$1,561
30 days−$5,196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$12,119
crypto 8% +$502
other 1% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -21.4% -28.9% 39% 36% -32.0%
≤30d 113 -11.6% -20.1% 47% 42% -19.4%
≤90d 291 -8.5% -17.2% 50% 46% -21.0%
all 348 -6.8% -15.7% 55% 45% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 45% -18.6%
10% -23.8% 38% -26.4%
15% -31.1% 32% -33.5%
20% -37.9% 24% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$188 vs −$304 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

103d coverage
Net worth$1,035
Realized−$11,387
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses191 / 157
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,156
Open positions4
Markets (closed)348 / 352
History coverage103d
Avg bet$338
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 63¢ 74¢ $420 $493 +$73 (+17%)
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) TDK 50¢ 48¢ $266 $253 −$13 (-5%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 57¢ $185 $181 −$5 (-3%)
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) Gentle Mates 43¢ 40¢ $119 $109 −$10 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 148 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $430 −$424 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $773 −$761 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo Jun 17 $318 −$313 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $216 +$289 +134%
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) Jun 15 $667 −$653 -98%
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 15 $302 +$438 +145%
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,074 −$1,056 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $560 +$409 +73%
Map Handicap: BBP (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) Jun 15 $65 −$63 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) Jun 15 $1,792 +$975 +54%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $888 +$732 +82%
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) Jun 15 $236 +$425 +180%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs Infinite (+1.5) Jun 14 $223 −$219 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $115 −$114 -99%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $305 −$301 -99%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs illwill (+1.5) Jun 14 $232 −$227 -98%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 13 $1,003 +$107 +11%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $762 −$752 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Misa Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $262 −$257 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $503 −$496 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $688 −$672 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $46 +$91 +197%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $367 +$184 +50%
Map Handicap: ex-RUBY (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) Jun 11 $298 −$294 -99%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 11 $99 +$163 +165%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $178 −$174 -98%
Game Handicap: ME (-1.5) vs UCAM Esports Club (+1.5) Jun 11 $634 −$624 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming Junior vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 11 $1,150 +$99 +9%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $571 −$564 -99%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 11 $74 +$3 +4%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $227 +$73 +32%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $73 +$27 +38%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $1,443 +$120 +8%
Game Handicap: G2N (-1.5) vs Partizan Sangal (+1.5) Jun 10 $3 +$3 +82%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Partizan Sangal (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 10 $1,232 +$279 +23%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 09 $198 −$196 -99%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $308 −$303 -98%
Map Handicap: Lavked (-1.5) vs Misa Esports (+1.5) Jun 09 $238 +$319 +134%
Map Handicap: XLG (-1.5) vs Dragon Ranger Gaming (+1.5) Jun 09 $406 −$399 -98%
Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Gro Jun 09 $545 −$138 -25%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 1 Winner Jun 09 $123 −$120 -98%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) Jun 09 $418 +$476 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 09 $327 +$281 +86%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $781 +$345 +44%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 07 $893 −$881 -99%
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $639 +$527 +82%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $272 +$155 +57%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $2,015 +$720 +36%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) Jun 06 $378 +$597 +158%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Dragon Ranger Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 06 $800 +$301 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 63¢ $425 1h
Map Handicap: M8 (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) BUY Gentle Mates 43¢ $121 1h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Ursa (+1.5) BUY TDK 50¢ $270 1h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $188 1h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $80 26h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $5 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 50¢ $345 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $206 27h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 51¢ $567 27h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $96 28h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY TDK 45¢ $222 28h
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $216 2d
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 30¢ $208 2d
Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5) BUY Hokori 30¢ $459 2d
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 42¢ $401 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La SELL Top Esports Challenger 100¢ $969 2d
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 44¢ $447 2d
Game Handicap: SLY (-1.5) vs Galions (+1.5) BUY Solary 43¢ $227 2d
Map Handicap: BBP (-1.5) vs RUSTEC (+1.5) BUY Bebop 26¢ $65 2d
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 41¢ $46 2d
Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs G2 Ares (+1.5) BUY Walczaki 40¢ $256 2d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) SELL KT Rolster Challengers 100¢ $2,767 2d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 57¢ $560 3d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $579 3d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $505 3d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Saigon Warriors (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 64¢ $708 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs SELL LYON 100¢ $1,620 3d
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) SELL LYON 100¢ $661 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $12 3d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $876 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,035.25 · official $1,081.61 · 747 history records