Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:45:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb6c…d3a7 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$80 (-14%) realized −$89 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$27
14 days+$23
30 days+$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% −$124
sports 24% +$55
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +6.4% -3.7% 67% 67% -22.6%
≤30d 8 +22.7% +11.0% 75% 75% -1.0%
≤90d 24 -4.5% -13.6% 58% 58% -22.8%
all 24 -4.5% -13.6% 58% 58% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 58% -22.8%
10% -21.9% 54% -30.2%
15% -29.4% 50% -37.0%
20% -36.4% 29% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$23 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$89
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 28
History coverage65d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 81¢ $25 $34 +$9 (+36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 +$10 +62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $30 +$17 +57%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$12 +40%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $89 −$60 -68%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $42 +$42 +102%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $17 +$7 +42%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer May 06 $20 +$15 +72%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $22 −$22 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 May 06 $10 $0 -4%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $44 +$9 +20%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
FC Bayern München vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5 May 03 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $5 +$2 +48%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score May 03 $5 +$3 +60%
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 May 03 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 −$5 -99%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $15 +$14 +93%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $21 +$8 +36%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $95 −$93 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $26 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $16 13h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score AND Will Canada vs. Qatar end in BUY $4 25h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republi BUY $10 37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Will A BUY 12¢ $17 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $48 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $30 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $41 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $29 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $29 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $89 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 67¢ $10 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 42¢ $84 7d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $42 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $17 8d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 60¢ $22 44d
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 58¢ $10 44d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 78¢ $10 44d
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 80¢ $10 44d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 44d
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer BUY Yes 57¢ $10 44d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? SELL Yes 76¢ $53 45d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 62¢ $44 45d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 46d
CA Osasuna vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $5 48d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 48d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 48d
Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $5 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.32 · official $33.90 (match) · 46 history records