Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:11:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbb73…4f95 sports 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$71 (+3%) realized +$73 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%27W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$105
7 days+$180
14 days+$44
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$134
other 44% −$67
world 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-2.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +14.7% +3.7% 57% 55% -1.5%
≤30d 49 +8.3% -2.1% 55% 53% -7.8%
≤90d 49 +8.3% -2.1% 55% 53% -7.8%
all 49 +8.3% -2.1% 55% 53% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.1% 53% -7.8%
10% -11.4% 45% -16.6%
15% -20.0% 29% -24.6%
20% -27.8% 20% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$31 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$73
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses27 / 22
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage9d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $49 $47 −$2 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $25 −$8 -31%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $85 −$85 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$35 +35%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $50 +$13 +25%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $20 +$87 +437%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 −$9 -61%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $95 +$65 +68%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $15 +$9 +63%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$20 +39%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$18 -91%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$14 +46%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$6 -31%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $50 +$15 +30%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $60 +$24 +39%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$52 +105%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $70 −$30 -43%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $50 +$43 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $98 +$78 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $50 +$13 +26%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $100 +$29 +29%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $160 −$92 -58%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $15 +$89 +596%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $40 +$5 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $50 +$6 +12%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $50 −$25 -49%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $25 −$21 -85%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$23 +90%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 +$4 +7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $100 +$34 +34%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $50 +$6 +12%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $50 −$50 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $100 −$88 -88%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $28 +$9 +30%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5 Jun 08 $20 +$3 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 94¢ $63 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $50 2h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 59¢ $48 4h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $48 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $17 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 6h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $50 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 80¢ $135 7h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 7h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $63 8h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $30 8h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $107 8h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 18¢ $20 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $50 10h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes $6 11h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $25 15h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 15h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $100 15h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 15h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 86¢ $160 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 23h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $24 23h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $50 23h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $70 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes $2 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $44 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.68 · official $46.68 (match) · 118 history records