Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:46:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BB 0xbb76…0ac4 sports 7 markets active 10d ago coverage 39d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,017 (-60%) realized −$974 · open −$1,043
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -82% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -84% what you keep after slip
Net edge-84%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$477per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$912now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$1,563
sports 17% −$464
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-83.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -82.0% -83.7% 0% 0% -85.7%
≤90d 5 -82.0% -83.7% 0% 0% -85.7%
all 5 -82.0% -83.7% 0% 0% -85.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -83.7% 0% -85.7%
10% -85.2% 0% -87.1%
15% -86.7% 0% -88.3%
20% -88.0% 0% -89.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -84% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -82% · $-wt -84% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$197 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$912
Realized−$974
Unrealized−$1,043
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 5
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage39d
Avg bet$477
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1,954 $912 −$1,043 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $185 −$181 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $205 −$20 -10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $92 −$90 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $198 −$193 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $513 −$500 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $185 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $185 9d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 23¢ $92 11d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Be BUY 8¢ $103 11d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $102 11d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 11¢ $95 11d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 11d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $257 11d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $257 11d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1,005 47d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1,038 49d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $911.72 · official $911.72 (match) · 11 history records