Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BB 0xbb76…66fa sports 39 markets active 4d ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$87 (+7%) realized +$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$49
14 days+$70
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% +$41
other 39% +$27
crypto 11% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 39% -13.6%
≤30d 37 +12.4% +1.7% 54% 46% -1.2%
≤90d 39 +13.1% +2.4% 54% 46% -1.2%
all 39 +13.1% +2.4% 54% 46% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 46% -1.2%
10% -7.4% 38% -10.7%
15% -16.4% 33% -19.3%
20% -24.6% 31% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$24 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)39 / 39
History coverage50d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 39 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $57 −$56 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $17 +$40 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$3 -18%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $10 +$15 +145%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 −$13 -64%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $83 −$82 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $75 −$74 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $51 +$33 +66%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 +$75 +246%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 −$2 -4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $51 +$3 +7%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $36 +$46 +128%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $33 +$6 +17%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $34 +$20 +58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$59 -57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $118 +$29 +25%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $91 +$27 +29%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $20 +$38 +188%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$55 +109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$51 +249%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $20 +$32 +158%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $10 +$15 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $57 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $57 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 4d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $10 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 61¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 66¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 92 history records