Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb7a…f5fb other 258 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 250L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$24
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$38
sports 27% −$25
politics 8% −$6
economics 7% −$15
culture 6% −$6
crypto 4% −$4
world 2% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 178 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)257 / 258
History coverage136d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $53 $53 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $449 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $574 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $228 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $281 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $198 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $264 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $212 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $444 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $257 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $906 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $406 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $396 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $253 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $370 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $474 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $357 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $289 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $424 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $121 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $188 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $220 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $375 −$1 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $244 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $682 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $188 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $271 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $147 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $192 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $174 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $311 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $134 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $344 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $327 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $305 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $53 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 3h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 5h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 7h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 20h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 21h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 36h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 38h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 39h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $54 41h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 42h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 43h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 45h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 47h
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $54 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $54 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 2d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $54 3d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 3d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.03 · official $53.03 (match) · 1412 history records