trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 80¢ | 100¢ | $104 | $130 | +$26 (+25%) |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 18¢ | 18¢ | $100 | $97 | −$3 (-3%) |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | No | 44¢ | 44¢ | $30 | $30 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 10¢ | 10¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? | Yes | 10¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration? | Yes | 22¢ | 0¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $4 | $0 | +6% |
| OpenSea airdrop before April? | Nov 22 | $0 | $0 | +144% |
| Solana ETF approved by July 31? | Nov 22 | $0 | $0 | +82% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by January 31, 2025? | Jan 08 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Sonic launch before 2025? | Jan 08 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration? | Dec 26 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Solana above $245 on December 6? | Dec 11 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will $ETH hit $2000 or $4000 first? | Dec 11 | $0 | $0 | +133% |
| Dogecoin above $0.37 on November 22? | Nov 24 | $0 | $0 | +75% |
| Will ETH or SOL reach all-time high first? | Nov 24 | $0 | $0 | +75% |
| No change in Fed interest rates after 2024 September meeting? | Nov 18 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| $BTC dips below $45k before September? | Nov 18 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will $BTC reach 70k before October? | Nov 18 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Bitcoin above $69,000 on October 25? | Nov 18 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Pavel Durov released in August? | Nov 18 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will $BTC reach 70k before September? | Nov 18 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 before October? | Nov 18 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| $PEPE vs. $WIF - First to $10B? | Nov 18 | $0 | $0 | +52% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $0 | $0 | +5% |
| Bitcoin above $68,000 on November 1? | Nov 02 | $0 | $0 | +127% |
| Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 18? | Oct 21 | $0 | $0 | +61% |
| Bitcoin above $62,000 on October 11? | Oct 12 | $0 | $0 | +64% |
| Zircuit airdrop by September 30? | Oct 08 | $0 | $0 | +54% |
| Will FTX payouts start in Q4 2024? | Sep 29 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2024 meeting? | Sep 24 | $0 | $0 | +335% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Aug 29 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 before September? | Aug 28 | $0 | $0 | +138% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 100% | 0% | -4.1% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 100% | 0% | -4.1% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +6.0% | -4.1% | 100% | 0% | -4.1% |
| all | 27 | +1.9% | -7.8% | 52% | 44% | -1.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -7.8% | 44% | -1.1% |
| 10% | -16.6% | 44% | -10.5% |
| 15% | -24.7% | 44% | -19.2% |
| 20% | -32.1% | 44% | -27.1% |