Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:57:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BB 0xbb7c…82f2 sports 1525 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,981 (-1%) realized −$1,978 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate27%404W / 1105L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$574est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$68
14 days+$227
30 days+$675
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$2,750
other 11% +$305
crypto 2% −$966
politics 1% −$451
world 0% −$4
culture 0% −$70
weather 0% −$22
tech 0% −$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -3.7% -12.9% 25% 25% -1.7%
≤30d 415 +10.0% -0.5% 27% 27% +8.1%
≤90d 1391 -24.2% -31.4% 22% 19% -15.0%
all 1509 -7.3% -16.1% 27% 24% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 24% -11.7%
10% -24.1% 23% -20.1%
15% -31.5% 22% -27.8%
20% -38.2% 22% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$27 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$1,978
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses404 / 1105
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$574
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1509 / 1525
History coverage169d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1509 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley Dane Sweeny 30¢ 46¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+57%)
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-16%)
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Vit Kopriva 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-29%)
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Nick Kyrgios Nick Kyrgios 39¢ 30¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Zizou Bergs 35¢ 24¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-30%)
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Zsombor Piros 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 439 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$19 +188%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $5 +$12 +227%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $10 +$132 +1288%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $10 −$7 -66%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Lulu Sun vs Anhelina Kalinin Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $5 +$15 +291%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $12 −$2 -16%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Oscar Piastri win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $5 +$27 +525%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$40 +393%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Alicia Dudeney vs Yulia Putintseva Jun 13 $5 +$12 +238%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $13 −$13 -98%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $5 +$24 +474%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Bratislava: Federico Cina vs Taro Daniel Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $10 +$35 +344%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Mia Pohankova vs Tamara Korp Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros BUY Zsombor Piros 10¢ $5 34m
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 3¢ $3 49m
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 5¢ $5 56m
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Xinyu Wang BUY Xinyu Wang 11¢ $5 59m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 48¢ $20 1h
Nottingham 2: Dane Sweeny vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Dane Sweeny 30¢ $10 1h
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Kamil Majchrzak 34¢ $10 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Vit Kopriva 7¢ $5 1h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 13¢ $10 14h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 16h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 17h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 17h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $10 17h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 25¢ $20 17h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones SELL Talia Gibson 41¢ $17 18h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Talia Gibson 12¢ $5 18h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Nikola Bartunkova 4¢ $5 19h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider SELL Diana Shnaider 36¢ $18 19h
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider BUY Diana Shnaider 10¢ $5 20h
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Nuno Borges 7¢ $5 20h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (- BUY 6¢ $10 24h
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 10¢ $10 24h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 25¢ $10 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $10 25h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 25h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 24¢ $31 25h
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien SELL Max Schoenhaus 6¢ $3 25h
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina BUY Duje Ajdukovic 17¢ $10 25h
Parma: Sebastian Ofner vs Raul Brancaccio BUY Raul Brancaccio 30¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.06 · official $73.06 · 2797 history records