Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:47:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BB 0xbb7c…d88b other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$376 (-20%) realized −$376 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days−$563
14 days−$563
30 days−$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$213
world 21% −$347
sports 9% +$170
crypto 3% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+3.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +7.9% -2.4% 36% 36% -40.8%
≤30d 15 +14.2% +3.3% 40% 40% -29.3%
≤90d 15 +14.2% +3.3% 40% 40% -29.3%
all 15 +14.2% +3.3% 40% 40% -29.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.3% 40% -29.3%
10% -6.5% 33% -36.1%
15% -15.6% 33% -42.3%
20% -23.8% 33% -47.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +33% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$113 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$376
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage21d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $48 +$83 +173%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $404 −$347 -86%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $67 +$35 +53%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $162 −$160 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $82 −$8 -10%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 +$7 +20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $222 −$220 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 15 $63 −$2 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$228 +223%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 −$48 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $52 −$3 -5%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $56 −$3 -6%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $278 −$223 -80%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $165 +$170 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $131 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 35¢ $40 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $65 4d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $288 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $99 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $51 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $74 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 5d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $82 5d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $50 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $22 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $50 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 4¢ $22 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $61 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 5d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $330 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 43 history records