Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T14:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb7e…48d3 crypto 936 markets active 0h ago coverage 74d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,315 (+6%) realized +$2,317 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%412W / 523L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day39.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,164
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 110 -7.6% -16.4% 43% 41% -18.6%
≤30d 197 -12.1% -20.5% 40% 38% -27.1%
≤90d 935 -6.7% -15.6% 44% 41% -12.2%
all 935 -6.7% -15.6% 44% 41% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 41% -12.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 40% -20.6%
15% -31.0% 37% -28.3%
20% -37.8% 33% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$29 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized+$2,317
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses412 / 523
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)935 / 936
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$41
Trades / day39.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 935 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Up 45¢ 32¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$12 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 26 $23 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 26 $24 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 26 $14 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 26 $15 +$12 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 26 $20 −$8 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 26 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$7 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$2 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$10 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 26 $4 +$4 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $17 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 26 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$5 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $16 +$7 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 26 $13 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$10 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 26 $6 +$4 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$3 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $7 +$6 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$2 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 23 $6 +$5 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $12 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $3 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $24 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $15 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $8 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 31¢ $3 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $20 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $3 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $7 38m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.06 · official $6.92 · 3500 history records