Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:01:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb7f…73b4 world 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 339d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23 (-0%) realized −$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate29%27W / 67L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$66now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$17
other 22% −$4
politics 19% −$5
sports 13% +$1
crypto 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -4.0% -13.1% 25% 0% -12.2%
≤30d 28 -1.0% -10.5% 32% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 84 -0.6% -10.0% 29% 1% -9.9%
all 94 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 1% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -9.9%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

339d coverage
Net worth$66
Realized−$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses27 / 67
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions4
Markets (closed)94 / 98
History coverage339d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 72¢ 76¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $129 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $56 +$4 +7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $54 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $30 −$7 -24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $80 −$13 -16%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $145 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $54 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $80 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $239 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 -3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 04 $202 −$2 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 02 $81 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $66 +$2 +3%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $81 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $42 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $94 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $33 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $74 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $8 $0 +6%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $74 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $5 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 23 $26 −$2 -6%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 23 $76 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 21 $78 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 18 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +23%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 15 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 14 $82 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 02 $79 $0 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 02 $77 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $82 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $159 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $82 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $82 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $149 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $353 +$1 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $77 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $98 −$4 -4%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $78 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $145 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $77 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $76 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $64 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $8 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $26 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 10h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $65 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $65 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $7 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $57 33h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $65 35h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $13 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $58 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $25 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 77¢ $38 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 76¢ $54 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $20 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 16¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $35 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 31¢ $32 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $80 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $23 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $65.57 · official $64.25 · 402 history records