Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:31:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb84…43cd crypto 13 markets active 3h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (413 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$7,045 (-27%) realized −$7,045 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -65% what you keep after slip
Net edge-65%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate31%4W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,039per market
Trades / day412.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$9,854
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (413 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-54.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -50.1% -54.8% 31% 15% -43.2%
≤30d 13 -50.1% -54.8% 31% 15% -43.2%
≤90d 13 -50.1% -54.8% 31% 15% -43.2%
all 13 -50.1% -54.8% 31% 15% -43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover412.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.8% 15% -43.2%
10% -59.2% 15% -48.7%
15% ← realistic here -63.1% 15% -53.6%
20% -66.7% 15% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -37% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -86% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
91.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$432 vs −$1,287 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,045
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses4 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2,039
Trades / day412.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $1,044 −$1,044 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 23 $356 −$333 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 23 $356 −$333 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $9,907 +$93 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $181 −$178 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $333 −$333 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $266 +$266 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $5,994 −$4,896 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $5,540 −$3,453 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $1,502 +$1,367 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $12 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $500 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $46 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $6 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1204 history records