Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb86…dc7b other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized +$1,159 · open −$1,188
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day8.9pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$346now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$1,649
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
— vs −$231 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$346
Realized+$1,159
Unrealized−$1,188
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)2 / 6
History coverage3d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day8.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 37¢ 26¢ $378 $270 −$108 (-29%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 24¢ 6¢ $260 $71 −$189 (-73%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $39 $4 −$36 (-90%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $857 $1 −$856 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $417 −$400 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $64 −$61 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $24 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $11 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $49 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $75 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $96 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $153 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $137 1h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $16 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $90 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $67 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $221 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $324 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $19 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $136 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $6 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $17 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $39 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 39¢ $233 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $66 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $22 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $123 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $90 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.31 · official $346.31 (match) · 26 history records