Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:56:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb89…8678 other 178 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%22W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$3
sports 25% −$2
politics 20% −$2
economics 9% −$1
culture 6% $0
world 6% −$1
crypto 5% −$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 5 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 177 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses22 / 155
Open positions1
Markets (closed)177 / 178
History coverage167d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $28 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $126 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $33 $0 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 15 $27 $0 -0%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? Mar 11 $38 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 10 $438 $0 -0%
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 10 $74 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 09 $36 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 09 $84 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 09 $33 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 09 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 08 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 08 $32 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 08 $95 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Mar 07 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 07 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 07 $74 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Mar 06 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 06 $150 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 06 $41 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 03 $211 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 03 $33 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Mar 03 $156 $0 -0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 03 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 01 $115 +$1 +1%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 01 $229 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 01 $79 $0 -0%
Will Shane Lowry win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 01 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $89 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 01 $42 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $111 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar Feb 27 $4 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $40 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $122 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 27 $43 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 26 $175 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 26 $76 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Feb 24 $82 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $172 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 23 $44 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 98¢ $26 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 11d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 11d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $28 19d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 20d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $38 28d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $38 28d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $33 36d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $33 36d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $27 43d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $27 43d
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? SELL Yes 97¢ $38 109d
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? BUY Yes 97¢ $26 109d
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals? BUY Yes 97¢ $13 109d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $40 109d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $40 109d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $29 109d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $30 109d
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $39 109d
Will Viktor Hovland win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $39 110d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 93¢ $36 110d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 93¢ $36 110d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $33 110d
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $34 110d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $36 110d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $27 110d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $9 110d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $40 110d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $40 110d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $33 110d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.10 · official $26.10 (match) · 696 history records