Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:21:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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BB 0xbb8b…9cd7 sports 284 markets active 2h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$779 (+9%) realized +$788 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%133W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$69est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$277
7 days+$632
14 days+$694
30 days+$746
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$884
other 39% +$1,708
crypto 1% −$71
world 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +8.2% -2.1% 64% 56% +24.6%
≤30d 275 -1.6% -10.9% 48% 46% -1.4%
≤90d 275 -1.6% -10.9% 48% 46% -1.4%
all 275 -1.6% -10.9% 48% 46% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 46% -1.4%
10% -19.5% 39% -10.8%
15% -27.2% 32% -19.4%
20% -34.4% 29% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$24 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized+$788
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses133 / 142
Est. fees paid−$69
Open positions8
Markets (closed)275 / 284
History coverage29d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 275 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 62¢ 96¢ $30 $46 +$16 (+55%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 99¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+71%)
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Yes 35¢ 100¢ $10 $28 +$18 (+185%)
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Sweden 85¢ 20¢ $60 $14 −$46 (-76%)
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 10¢ 4¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-55%)
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Yes 31¢ 49¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 12¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-59%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 138 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $244 +$266 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $153 +$47 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$2 +7%
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$17 +165%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $64 +$66 +103%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 +$34 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$6 +29%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 +$18 +22%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $17 +$3 +16%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $35 +$13 +38%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7 +$9 +124%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 +$7 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $25 +$4 +17%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $83 +$43 +52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $31 +$46 +152%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $26 +$56 +216%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$60 +197%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $65 +$17 +26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 +$14 +67%
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$1 +10%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 +$9 +29%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $20 +$11 +55%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 +$25 +124%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $122 +$8 +7%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$10 +54%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $203 +$89 +44%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $44 +$6 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $12 +$8 +70%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $51 +$71 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $4 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $10 1h
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 85¢ $60 1h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 31¢ $5 16h
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 36¢ $5 16h
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 29h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 46¢ $92 41h
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $5 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $20 44h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 93¢ $30 44h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 52¢ $20 44h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 47h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $10 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $2 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $20 2d
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 86¢ $17 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $102 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 82¢ $82 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $54 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 3d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 3d
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY DR Congo 72¢ $35 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $151 3d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.77 · official $103.92 · 531 history records