Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:58:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb8b…a98c crypto 18 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$81 (-75%) realized −$81 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -81% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip
Net edge-85%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%1W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% −$29
tech 43% −$45
finance 11% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-82.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -81.0% -82.8% 6% 6% -83.2%
≤30d 17 -81.0% -82.8% 6% 6% -83.2%
≤90d 17 -81.0% -82.8% 6% 6% -83.2%
all 17 -81.0% -82.8% 6% 6% -83.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -82.8% 6% -83.2%
10% ← realistic here -84.4% 6% -84.8%
15% -85.9% 6% -86.3%
20% -87.3% 6% -87.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -81% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -81% · $-wt -81% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -88% → late -75% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$81
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses1 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -48%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$6 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY Yes 19¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.83 (match) · 30 history records