Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:49:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BB 0xbb8c…6759 other 47 markets active 10h ago coverage 617d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+8%) realized +$35 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate50%19W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$60
14 days+$60
30 days+$50
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% −$64
world 23% −$3
politics 16% +$19
sports 14% +$81
crypto 6% −$2
tech 2% $0
finance 1% −$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +138.3% +115.6% 44% 33% +97.6%
≤30d 11 +104.1% +84.6% 45% 27% +59.2%
≤90d 16 +96.1% +77.4% 56% 38% +63.4%
all 38 +28.9% +16.7% 50% 37% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 37% +1.6%
10% +5.5% 34% -8.1%
15% -4.7% 32% -17.0%
20% -14.0% 29% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +81% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$8 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

617d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses19 / 19
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)38 / 47
History coverage617d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-5%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-20%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 89¢ 93¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? Yes 86¢ 2¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +325%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$72 +1395%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Apr 27 $5 $0 +6%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 27 $5 +$13 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 27 $5 +$8 +165%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? Apr 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday? Apr 05 $5 +$3 +64%
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February? Feb 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-31? Feb 19 $1 +$1 +75%
Will Trump jail Elon Musk? Feb 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump deport Elon Musk in 2025? Feb 19 $5 $0 +5%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 30 $1 +$2 +186%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Nov 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by September 30? Aug 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? Jul 08 $10 +$11 +113%
Will Henry Kissinger be named in Epstein files? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump cut military spending? Jun 05 $11 +$4 +33%
Trump declassifies 9/11 files in first 100 days? Jun 05 $11 +$4 +37%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after November 2024 meeting? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran Nuke in 2024? Feb 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Silver close over $40 at the end of 2024? Feb 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Israel military response against Iran in October? Jan 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump win Florida by 8+ points? Dec 06 $20 +$11 +54%
Will Israeli troops enter Bint Jbeil by October 15? Oct 24 $16 +$27 +170%
Israel military response against Iran by Friday? Oct 24 $10 +$9 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 9h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 9h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 9h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 35h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 35h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 35h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 45h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 45h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $4,800 by end of June? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 26d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 26d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 26d
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 31? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 51d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 73d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 6? BUY Down 73¢ $3 73d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 73d
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 28 over 30% on Friday? BUY No 61¢ $5 118d
Odds of Khamenei out by March 31 over 40% in February? BUY No 81¢ $5 118d
Will Algeria win on 2025-12-31? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 169d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 169d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 35¢ $1 208d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 208d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 89¢ $1 208d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.89 · official $38.89 (match) · 76 history records