Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:57:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BB
0xbb8e…b243
world · 351 markets active 9d ago
0.0score
−$95,561 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$70,127 · open −$26,223
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$70,033
Realized−$70,127
Unrealized−$26,223
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses186 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$194
Open positions20
Markets (closed)331 / 351
History coverage450d
Avg bet$7,845
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 20 History 331 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$66,128
30 days−$79,758
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 40¢ $18,068 $17,303 −$765 (-4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 45¢ 18¢ $30,038 $12,480 −$17,558 (-58%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Yes 79¢ 76¢ $9,990 $9,581 −$409 (-4%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 57¢ 46¢ $10,942 $8,804 −$2,138 (-20%)
Taylor Swift pregnant before marriage? No 69¢ 99¢ $2,519 $3,607 +$1,088 (+43%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 87¢ 55¢ $5,573 $3,548 −$2,024 (-36%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 42¢ 16¢ $8,635 $3,273 −$5,363 (-62%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 8¢ $1,330 $2,579 +$1,250 (+94%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $1,775 $1,737 −$38 (-2%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Yes 21¢ 49¢ $637 $1,523 +$886 (+139%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 66¢ 36¢ $2,271 $1,261 −$1,010 (-44%)
Trump out as President before GTA VI? Yes 27¢ 50¢ $665 $1,255 +$590 (+89%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? Yes 44¢ 51¢ $989 $1,148 +$159 (+16%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 86¢ 69¢ $1,006 $816 −$190 (-19%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 7¢ 23¢ $224 $700 +$476 (+212%)
New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? Yes 70¢ 52¢ $363 $271 −$92 (-25%)
Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? Yes 64¢ 53¢ $64 $53 −$11 (-17%)
Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET? Yes 40¢ 2¢ $1,037 $48 −$989 (-95%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $106 $44 −$62 (-59%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-99%)
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday? No 50¢ 0¢ $11,243 $0 −$11,243 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin shake hands on Friday? No 1¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by December 31? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $7,555 $0 −$7,555 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 03 $24,716 −$24,715 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 30 $3,327 −$3,327 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? May 29 $76 −$76 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $4,499 −$4,499 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $11 −$11 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $42 −$42 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $63,748 −$33,458 -52%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $4,150 +$1,343 +32%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 25 $30,583 −$15,485 -51%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 25 $369 −$369 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 24 $628 −$628 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23? May 24 $3,434 +$442 +13%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $17,175 +$3,413 +20%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 23 $1,131 −$1,131 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 22 $826 −$826 -100%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 16 $400 −$388 -97%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 09 $3,905 −$866 -22%
Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire before GTA VI? May 09 $121 +$146 +120%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 09 $43,828 −$4,887 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by May 7? May 07 $101 +$96 +95%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 07 $200 +$161 +81%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 05 $5,081 −$5,081 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? May 02 $1,552 +$1,319 +85%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 02 $5,795 +$436 +8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 02 $10,556 +$6,893 +65%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 02 $29,940 +$60 +0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? May 01 $6,185 +$238 +4%
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision? Apr 29 $9,246 +$540 +6%
Will one person dissent the April Fed decision? Apr 29 $9,242 +$624 +7%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 28 $2,372 +$521 +22%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 28 $34,542 +$7,308 +21%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 26 $975 −$201 -21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026? Apr 25 $1,689 −$726 -43%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026? Apr 24 $4,615 −$4,615 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 24 $1,815 −$1,778 -98%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026? Apr 24 $221 −$221 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 28, 2026? Apr 24 $2,567 −$2,298 -90%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $6,962 −$1,593 -23%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 22 $7,302 +$918 +13%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 21 $2,706 −$2,706 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 21 $1,854 −$1,854 -100%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 21 $1,355 −$697 -51%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $9,292 −$4,137 -44%
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 19 $7,457 −$7,457 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 19 $24,608 −$18,563 -75%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $6,174 +$610 +10%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 17 $17,383 +$5,542 +32%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $1,429 +$672 +47%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $1,108 −$158 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 09 $2,963 −$2,963 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 37% −$44,308
economics 23% −$50,075
other 19% +$2,718
politics 16% −$11,918
tech 2% +$7,607
sports 2% +$8,046
crypto 1% −$12,168
culture 0% +$3,749
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $40 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2,748 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $2,164 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $733 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,775 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 41¢ $817 12d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY Yes 56¢ $1,882 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? BUY Yes 41¢ $76 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $188 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 4¢ $42 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $715 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $707 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $304 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $17,179 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $2,294 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $556 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $12,960 16d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? SELL Yes 98¢ $5,493 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $2,471 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,006 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $992 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,120 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3,349 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1,749 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $327 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $244 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $3,910 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $874 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 16 -73.4% -75.9% 19% 19% -65.4%
≤90d 68 +3.9% -6.0% 49% 34% -10.1%
all 331 +14.5% +3.6% 56% 39% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.6% 39% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here -6.4% 27% -19.3%
15% -15.4% 21% -27.1%
20% -23.7% 17% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70,032.63 · official $70,032.75 (match) · 2502 history records