Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T07:16:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb91…cb7e world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate44%14W / 18L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$6
other 15% $0
sports 10% +$7
finance 6% −$1
weather 3% −$1
tech 3% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 0% -12.2%
≤90d 14 -0.5% -10.0% 21% 0% -11.1%
all 32 -0.4% -9.9% 44% 6% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 6% -9.5%
10% -18.5% 3% -18.2%
15% -26.4% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses14 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage489d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 91¢ 91¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 27 $34 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $32 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $54 −$6 -11%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $6 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $41 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $2 $0 +4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $10 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $13 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $19 −$1 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -9%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $2 $0 +3%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 07 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 66-67°F on March 31? Mar 31 $18 $0 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on March 31? Mar 30 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 28 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 54°F or below on March 22? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? Mar 21 $16 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 21 $2 $0 +18%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $17 $0 +2%
Boston Univ. vs. Lehigh Mar 20 $9 +$9 +96%
St. Bonaventure vs. St. Joseph's Feb 25 $10 $0 +0%
Bellarmine vs. Florida Gulf Coast Feb 25 $9 $0 +0%
Will the AfD win between 20% and 22% of the vote in the German electio Feb 25 $9 $0 -0%
Suns vs. Grizzlies Feb 24 $11 −$2 -22%
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 23 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $34 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $31 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 12h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $3 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $10 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $18 31h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $19 34h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $12 34h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $34 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $31 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $26 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $3 28d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $2 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $41 29d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $41 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.54 · official $33.54 (match) · 89 history records