Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:42:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BB 0xbb92…b221 sports 242 markets active 0h ago coverage 249d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$501 (+1%) realized +$3,024 · open −$2,523
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%111W / 109L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10,334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 249d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$2,424
sports 38% +$1,066
world 14% +$13
tech 2% −$661
other 0% −$36
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 -9.3% -18.0% 44% 44% -8.9%
≤30d 163 -2.6% -11.8% 48% 47% -13.3%
≤90d 166 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 47% -11.9%
all 220 +3.3% -6.5% 50% 48% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 48% -8.3%
10% -15.5% 46% -17.1%
15% -23.6% 41% -25.1%
20% -31.1% 39% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$62 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$10,334
Realized+$3,024
Unrealized−$2,523
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses111 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions22
Markets (closed)220 / 242
History coverage249d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 220 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 50¢ 77¢ $4,750 $7,282 +$2,532 (+53%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 23¢ $4,750 $2,218 −$2,532 (-53%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Chicago White Sox 44¢ 44¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Pittsburgh Pirates 64¢ 64¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 55¢ 55¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 38¢ 36¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 44¢ 53¢ $65 $80 +$14 (+22%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Cincinnati Reds 36¢ 34¢ $67 $65 −$2 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $52 $49 −$4 (-7%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 55¢ 56¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 46¢ 46¢ $34 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Minnesota Twins 42¢ 46¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+8%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 61¢ 62¢ $25 $26 +$0 (+1%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Baltimore Orioles 30¢ 30¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Houston Astros 55¢ 55¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Boston Red Sox 45¢ 46¢ $12 $13 +$0 (+3%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ 50¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants 52¢ 52¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Cincinnati Reds 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 51¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 52¢ 52¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers San Diego Padres 42¢ 45¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Athletics 56¢ 56¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins San Francisco Giants 44¢ 44¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $19 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $183 −$33 -18%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $89 +$104 +117%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 20 $213 −$63 -30%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $70 −$2 -2%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 20 $1 +$1 +138%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $72 +$78 +108%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 20 $69 +$65 +94%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $112 +$144 +129%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $81 +$69 +85%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $100 +$50 +49%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $98 +$90 +92%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 19 $60 −$60 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 19 $106 −$105 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $84 +$66 +79%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 19 $79 +$71 +90%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 18 $87 +$62 +71%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 18 $75 +$75 +100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $84 −$84 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $96 +$54 +57%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $81 +$69 +86%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $94 +$56 +60%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 18 $96 −$96 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $89 −$88 -99%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 18 $79 −$78 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $87 +$63 +72%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $79 −$40 -50%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $60 +$90 +150%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $69 +$81 +117%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $86 −$85 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $90 +$60 +67%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $84 +$66 +79%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 17 $80 −$80 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 17 $87 −$85 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $86 +$64 +75%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $85 +$64 +75%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $88 +$62 +70%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 16 $73 −$72 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $68 −$68 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $66 −$66 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $85 −$85 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $82 −$82 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $8 +$8 +92%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $65 4m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $5 9m
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 50¢ $4 12m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Baltimore Orioles 30¢ $22 30m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 52¢ $4 30m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $19 43m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $2 43m
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $1 51m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL San Francisco Giants 43¢ $11 53m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 61¢ $12 55m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 61¢ $3 55m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros SELL Houston Astros 55¢ $8 58m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $2 58m
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $14 58m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $1 59m
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $11 59m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Baltimore Orioles 31¢ $40 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 64¢ $65 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 64¢ $35 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL San Francisco Giants 44¢ $61 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $1 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $1 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $30 1h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $31 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $100 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $7 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 35¢ $25 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins SELL San Francisco Giants 44¢ $13 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $1 2h
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 44¢ $13 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,333.68 · official $10,331.15 (match) · 1320 history records