Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:16:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BB 0xbb92…701c other 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$84 (+11%) realized +$86 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%16W / 35L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$189now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$80
7 days+$107
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$2
crypto 7% +$24
sports 6% +$62
world 1% −$1
politics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-5.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +13.9% +3.1% 34% 32% +8.3%
≤30d 51 +5.0% -5.0% 31% 29% +3.9%
≤90d 51 +5.0% -5.0% 31% 29% +3.9%
all 51 +5.0% -5.0% 31% 29% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.0% 29% +3.9%
10% -14.1% 29% -6.0%
15% -22.4% 27% -15.1%
20% -30.0% 20% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$6 · ×3.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.43 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$189
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses16 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions17
Markets (closed)51 / 68
History coverage7d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $102 $103 +$1 (+1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+4%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will a player representing Norway be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+296%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will SpaceX be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+49%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 22¢ 13¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-41%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 15¢ 7¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-53%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Ahmad Vahidi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $80 +$38 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $46 +$34 +73%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$1 -9%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $27 +$19 +70%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -72%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 $0 +2%
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Jun 19 $5 $0 -8%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$1 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 +$10 +65%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$16 +314%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $89 +$21 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$29 +1418%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$19 +365%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $118 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $80 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $9 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 9h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $37 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 26h
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 34¢ $5 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 26h
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? SELL No 24¢ $5 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 26h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 26h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $27 27h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $16 31h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 77¢ $21 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.07 · official $189.85 (match) · 102 history records