Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:38:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
BB 0xbb94…93c0 sports 87 markets active 9h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$255 (+16%) realized +$255 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%44W / 42L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days+$51
14 days+$180
30 days+$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$237
other 7% −$37
weather 2% +$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -17.7% -25.5% 33% 33% +9.1%
≤30d 43 +14.8% +3.8% 58% 58% +12.5%
≤90d 86 +11.9% +1.3% 51% 51% +3.9%
all 86 +11.9% +1.3% 51% 51% +3.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.3% 51% +3.9%
10% -8.4% 50% -6.0%
15% -17.3% 42% -15.1%
20% -25.4% 31% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$11 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$255
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses44 / 42
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage45d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (33 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $41 +$118 +288%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 $0 -2%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $20 +$16 +77%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $30 +$23 +76%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $30 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $30 +$12 +38%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $20 +$13 +64%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $51 +$34 +67%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $20 +$14 +70%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $20 +$13 +62%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $5 +$9 +185%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $20 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $20 +$13 +66%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $20 +$17 +86%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 03 $20 +$20 +97%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 02 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $20 +$10 +48%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 +$14 +70%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 +$16 +79%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $10 +$11 +112%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $15 +$11 +74%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $7 +$16 +218%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $5 $0 -8%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 01 $20 −$20 -99%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 28 $41 +$32 +79%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 May 27 $20 +$16 +79%
World Championships: Norway vs. Denmark May 26 $40 +$17 +43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 22 $30 +$13 +41%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 May 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche May 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $30 +$15 +50%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $20 +$16 +79%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $20 +$17 +83%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner May 11 $20 +$12 +59%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $40 +$27 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? AN BUY 20¢ $10 8h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 31¢ $5 20h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 100¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 68¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Team Falcons 63¢ $20 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 83¢ $36 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 38¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 46¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 45¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Team Falcons 63¢ $20 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S BUY TheMongolz 52¢ $30 5d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 100¢ $54 6d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 56¢ $30 7d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL G2 100¢ $40 7d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $42 7d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL B8 100¢ $33 7d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 SELL 9z 98¢ $84 7d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 60¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 71¢ $30 8d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 74¢ $30 8d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY 9z 58¢ $51 8d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL M80 100¢ $34 11d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL MIBR 100¢ $33 11d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY M80 58¢ $20 11d
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY MIBR 61¢ $20 12d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL B8 47¢ $15 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $10.00 · 185 history records