Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:23:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb94…243c sports 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,401 (-2%) realized −$3,150 · open −$251
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%61W / 92L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,284per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$3,090est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,230
7 days+$1,519
14 days+$1,519
30 days+$1,062
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$3,800
other 2% −$786
crypto 0% −$203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +36.3% +23.3% 75% 75% +53.5%
≤30d 15 +21.4% +9.9% 47% 47% +3.2%
≤90d 125 +0.3% -9.2% 38% 38% -13.2%
all 153 +0.9% -8.7% 40% 39% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 39% -11.6%
10% -17.5% 39% -20.1%
15% -25.4% 37% -27.8%
20% -32.8% 35% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$1,564) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,616 vs −$1,121 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,150
Unrealized−$251
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses61 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$3,090
Open positions1
Markets (closed)153 / 154
History coverage210d
Avg bet$1,284
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yellow Submarine 34¢ $251 $0 −$251 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 27 $895 +$1,018 +114%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 27 $201 −$197 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $689 +$410 +60%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $400 +$288 +72%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $2 +$7 +324%
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) Jun 03 $498 −$488 -98%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $513 −$500 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $509 −$500 -98%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs Jun 03 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 03 $2,168 −$134 -6%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $3 −$3 -96%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $508 +$578 +114%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $195 +$402 +206%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $499 +$691 +138%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 12 $205 −$202 -99%
Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs BNK FEARX (+1.5) May 12 $106 +$99 +93%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 2 Winner May 12 $61 +$46 +76%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner May 12 $30 +$30 +101%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $15 +$15 +105%
LoL: Team Orange Gaming vs Kaufland Hangry Knights (BO3) - Prime Leagu May 11 $8 +$7 +93%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $4 +$4 +118%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $100 −$98 -98%
Game Handicap: TES (-1.5) vs Weibo Gaming (+1.5) Apr 28 $4,487 −$4,409 -98%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+1.5) Apr 28 $1,965 +$2,522 +128%
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) Apr 28 $998 +$966 +97%
Spread: Thunder (-10.5) Apr 28 $954 −$941 -99%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $1,000 +$953 +95%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 18 $5,354 −$5,298 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 18 $1,000 −$978 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 18 $5,098 +$3,180 +62%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $1,000 −$978 -98%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 18 $295 −$288 -98%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Apr 18 $400 −$105 -26%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $8,459 −$8,324 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 18 $2,892 +$5,963 +206%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs GamerLegion (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 18 $2,530 −$2,481 -98%
Game Handicap: KT (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Apr 18 $3,998 +$2,533 +63%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Apr 18 $952 −$935 -98%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $500 −$50 -10%
LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO3) - LCP Regular Seaso Apr 18 $394 −$385 -98%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 18 $603 −$589 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 18 $8,996 −$8,833 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) Apr 18 $5,967 −$5,862 -98%
Warriors vs. Suns Apr 18 $3,998 −$1,981 -50%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 17 $7,099 −$7,011 -99%
Will Rio Ave FC win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $999 −$984 -98%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 17 $77 −$77 -100%
LoL: Esprit Shōnen vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Apr 17 $323 −$315 -98%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Apr 17 $2,820 +$3,079 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 28¢ $99 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eur BUY Yellow Submarine 38¢ $157 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 100¢ $1,913 38h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 46¢ $895 41h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 32¢ $101 41h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 49¢ $99 42h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $1 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 62¢ $688 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner SELL Yellow Submarine 100¢ $689 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 66¢ $253 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 58¢ $47 2d
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner BUY Yellow Submarine 43¢ $100 2d
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN - Map 1 Winner BUY FlyQuest 42¢ $9 21d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 100¢ $9 21d
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 23¢ $2 21d
Map Handicap: HERO (-1.5) vs Gaimin Gladiators (+1.5) BUY Gaimin Gladiators 33¢ $498 25d
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Gaimin Gladiators 16¢ $513 25d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 38¢ $509 25d
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - LFL Playoffs BUY Galions 21¢ $512 25d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $2,033 25d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $3 25d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,084 26d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL Liquid 100¢ $1,086 26d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $575 26d
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $508 26d
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Liquid 46¢ $508 26d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL GamerLegion 100¢ $596 26d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 32¢ $195 26d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL LGD Gaming 100¢ $1,190 26d
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 41¢ $499 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.37 (match) · 323 history records