Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T23:46:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb96…ea06 crypto 80 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$266 (-8%) realized −$227 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%24W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$593now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$160
7 days−$55
14 days−$50
30 days−$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% −$127
crypto 37% −$238
other 23% +$27
politics 2% +$2
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.6% -10.1% 42% 42% -13.4%
≤30d 65 -20.7% -28.2% 37% 32% -20.4%
≤90d 65 -20.7% -28.2% 37% 32% -20.4%
all 65 -20.7% -28.2% 37% 32% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 32% -20.4%
10% -35.1% 26% -28.0%
15% -41.4% 22% -35.0%
20% -47.1% 18% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$27 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$593
Realized−$227
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses24 / 41
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions15
Markets (closed)65 / 80
History coverage20d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 72¢ $87 $127 +$40 (+46%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? No 60¢ 64¢ $67 $71 +$4 (+6%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 41¢ 42¢ $67 $69 +$2 (+4%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $67 $67 +$1 (+1%)
Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5) PortlandFire 46¢ 35¢ $67 $51 −$16 (-24%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Under 47¢ 16¢ $87 $29 −$58 (-67%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score No 49¢ 48¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+9%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $21 $21 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 47¢ 45¢ $21 $20 −$1 (-4%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-21%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $86 +$98 +114%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $88 −$87 -99%
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $40 −$39 -98%
France leading at halftime? Jun 26 $88 −$87 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $88 −$87 -98%
Spread: New York Liberty (-8.5) Jun 26 $53 +$53 +101%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $53 +$109 +206%
Paraguay vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $52 +$12 +23%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $53 +$172 +325%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $56 +$22 +40%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $7 −$7 -98%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $57 −$56 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $54 +$91 +168%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $62 +$28 +45%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $66 −$4 -5%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $74 −$7 -9%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $74 −$72 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $74 −$72 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $74 −$72 -98%
Will Japan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $10 +$3 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Elon Musk attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -90%
Will Matthew McConaughey attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $12 +$8 +65%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $9 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $14 +$18 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $56 −$27 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $72 −$59 -83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $78 +$10 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $21 $0 -2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $22 +$3 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $32 −$14 -45%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $59 −$21 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $17 −$17 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $62 −$17 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $65 −$34 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $351 −$90 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $30 +$35 +114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $30 −$28 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $3 5m
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $18 5m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $25 11m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $6 22m
Uruguay vs. Spain: Uruguay O/U 0.5 BUY Under 43¢ $16 39m
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 60¢ $68 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 41¢ $68 1h
Spread: Chicago Sky (-5.5) BUY PortlandFire 46¢ $68 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $68 1h
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 47¢ $88 2h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $88 3h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 46¢ $86 4h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 54¢ $15 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $15 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $29 5h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $2 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 5h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $6 5h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $10 5h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $1 5h
Norway vs. France: France 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $22 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $3 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $4 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 5h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $8 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $593.47 · official $590.59 (match) · 302 history records