Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:59:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb96…d3a4 other 252 markets active 0h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$76 (-0%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%14W / 237L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$241per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$39
sports 24% −$24
politics 8% −$5
economics 7% −$6
culture 5% −$6
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$4
finance 1% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.1% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 251 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses14 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)251 / 252
History coverage136d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 251 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $61 $61 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $351 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $762 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $307 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $319 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $152 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $630 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $395 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $328 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $694 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $158 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $63 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $521 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $279 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $350 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 13 $426 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $153 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,005 −$2 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $130 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $573 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $162 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $534 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $567 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $171 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $232 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $128 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $49 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $157 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $441 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $383 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $247 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $157 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $221 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 28m
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 1h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 3h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 4h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 6h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 7h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 8h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 10h
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $62 12h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $62 14h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $62 15h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $62 16h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 17h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $8 20h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $8 22h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 23h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 25h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $62 29h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $62 31h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 35h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 37h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $62 44h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $62 45h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $62 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $62 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $62 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $63 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.02 · official $61.02 (match) · 1447 history records