Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:08:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb98…6d3c world 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,007 (+2%) realized +$1,804 · open +$203
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate59%51W / 35L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,386per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$76est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4,574now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$1,893
14 days+$263
30 days+$2,413
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$1,897
sports 7% −$148
other 3% −$94
politics 2% +$23
crypto 1% −$73
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -13.4% -21.6% 40% 20% -0.5%
≤30d 43 -3.5% -12.7% 56% 26% -5.2%
≤90d 79 -3.9% -13.1% 59% 25% -8.3%
all 86 -4.2% -13.4% 59% 27% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 27% -8.4%
10% -21.6% 8% -17.1%
15% -29.2% 5% -25.1%
20% -36.2% 2% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$1,609) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$157 vs −$194 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$4,574
Realized+$1,804
Unrealized+$203
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses51 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$76
Open positions4
Markets (closed)86 / 90
History coverage97d
Avg bet$1,386
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $3,521 $3,739 +$219 (+6%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? No 91¢ 96¢ $650 $692 +$42 (+7%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? No 12¢ 18¢ $100 $142 +$42 (+42%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 47¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $101 −$2 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $2,000 +$39 +2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $200 −$29 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $310 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $1,134 −$6 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $382 −$14 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $1,609 +$174 +11%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $7,330 +$2,154 +29%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 14 $2,230 +$116 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $2,220 −$559 -25%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 14 $1,112 +$202 +18%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in June? Jun 14 $135 −$135 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -40%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19? Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June? Jun 13 $60 −$50 -83%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? Jun 13 $800 −$27 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $94 +$34 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $817 −$341 -42%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $231 −$18 -8%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1,744 −$1,278 -73%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 06 $1,256 +$78 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 05 $766 −$66 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 05 $480 +$149 +31%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 04 $700 +$14 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 04 $400 +$9 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 04 $100 +$10 +10%
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in May? Jun 04 $110 +$10 +9%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 04 $166 +$39 +23%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 02 $286 +$34 +12%
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Jun 01 $99 +$4 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,368 −$48 -4%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 01 $363 +$51 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1,800 +$841 +47%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 31 $734 +$116 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 31 $13,103 +$625 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $619 +$11 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $287 −$58 -20%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $891 +$39 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $2,478 +$479 +19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 27 $101 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 26 $1,426 +$75 +5%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $736 −$259 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 18 $5 +$4 +85%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4,532 −$41 -1%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $4,001 +$7 +0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $105 −$100 -95%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $210 −$179 -85%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $300 +$33 +11%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $416 −$395 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $100 1h
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $99 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $41 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,683 2h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 87¢ $356 4h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 68¢ $171 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $60 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 51¢ $100 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $155 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $80 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $2,000 17h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $200 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $248 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $2,036 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 91¢ $650 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $322 43h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $309 43h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 47¢ $100 45h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 0¢ $5 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $310 3d
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $10 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 1¢ $20 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $557 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $397 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $397 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $130 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 6¢ $130 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $43 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,574.26 · official $4,574.26 (match) · 664 history records