Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:24:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
BB 0xbb9b…7ffd world 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$298 (-42%) realized −$298 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% $0
other 43% −$305
crypto 9% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +5.6% -4.5% 50% 50% -3.4%
≤30d 4 -22.2% -29.6% 25% 25% -47.3%
≤90d 4 -22.2% -29.6% 25% 25% -47.3%
all 4 -22.2% -29.6% 25% 25% -47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 25% -47.3%
10% -36.4% 0% -52.3%
15% -42.5% 0% -56.9%
20% -48.1% 0% -61.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$305 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$298
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage10d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 30? Jun 22 $40 $0 +0%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? Jun 22 $63 +$7 +11%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 12 $305 −$305 -100%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $305 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records