Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

BB
0xbb9c…072b
other · 141 markets active 2d ago
0.0score
+$170,861 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$73,555 · open −$114
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$633
Realized+$73,555
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses114 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)91%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)138 / 141
History coverage66d
Avg bet$16,671
Trades / day49.2
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit36%
Chart Positions 3 History 138 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4,831
7 days+$6,722
14 days+$13,682
30 days+$25,642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Republican Party win the TN-09 House seat? Yes 64¢ 81¢ $346 $437 +$91 (+26%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $283 $158 −$125 (-44%)
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Yes 14¢ $118 $39 −$80 (-67%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? No $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Yes $382 $0 −$382 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 12 $1,265 −$119 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $38,892 +$2,439 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $6,174 +$2,969 +48%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $962 −$440 -46%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $27 −$18 -67%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $6,766 +$21 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $989 +$156 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $23,753 −$75 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $27,580 +$1,506 +6%
Utah Archers vs. Carolina Chaos Jun 09 $1,016 +$1 +0%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 09 $59,617 +$60 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $378 −$29 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $178 +$20 +11%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $101,067 +$141 +0%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $13,740 +$61 +0%
Will Bahrain win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $6,261 +$28 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 07 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1,881 +$382 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $5,949 +$564 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $378,460 +$4,093 +1%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills? Jun 03 $111 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party win the TN-09 House seat? Jun 03 $582 +$139 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $4,219 +$176 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,212 +$406 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $3,026 +$462 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $32,267 +$482 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $5,444 +$53 +1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1,452 +$7 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $1,855 +$386 +21%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,800 +$5 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $978 −$197 -20%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $450-$460 on the final day of trading o May 30 $1,523 +$2 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $440-$450 on the final day of trading o May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 30 $7,802 +$12 +0%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $746 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $53,459 +$248 +0%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 30 $39 $0 -1%
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 30 $412 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $43,495 +$42 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $2,180 +$2 +0%
Canada recession before 2027? May 29 $3,961 +$10 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $2,337 +$1,041 +44%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $1,621 +$198 +12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 29 $3,855 −$781 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $44,515 +$372 +1%
Will Dell say "xAI" during earnings call? May 29 $8,552 +$12 +0%
Will Trump say "Polling" this week? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026? May 28 $1,127 −$64 -6%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $15,655 +$294 +2%
Internet Access restored in Iran by September 30, 2026? May 28 $6,606 +$127 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 45% +$42,956
world 26% +$25,150
crypto 21% +$4,294
finance 5% +$303
tech 1% +$140
sports 1% +$132
politics 1% +$456
economics 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes $37 41h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No $52 41h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $9 41h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $54 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $78 42h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $351 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 35¢ $161 42h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $40 42h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $118 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $53 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $1 42h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $16 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $111 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $119 42h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $89 42h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 42h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 42h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 42h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $2 42h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 42h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $2 42h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 42h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 42h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 42h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 42h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $1 42h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 42h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 42h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $0 42h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes $1 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +116.0% +95.4% 69% 19% -8.0%
≤30d 79 +26.3% +14.2% 77% 18% -7.9%
≤90d 138 +20.4% +9.0% 83% 18% -6.8%
all 138 +20.4% +9.0% 83% 18% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover49.2 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.0% 18% -6.8%
10% -1.5% 9% -15.7%
15% ← realistic here -11.0% 5% -23.8%
20% -19.7% 4% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $633.28 · official $633.28 (match) · 3500 history records