Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T17:14:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
BB 0xbb9c…beb6 crypto 300 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (144 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$331 (+13%) realized +$330 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate51%151W / 147L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day143.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% +$355
sports 3% +$15
other 2% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (144 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 298 +12.4% +1.7% 51% 50% +7.7%
≤30d 298 +12.4% +1.7% 51% 50% +7.7%
≤90d 298 +12.4% +1.7% 51% 50% +7.7%
all 298 +12.4% +1.7% 51% 50% +7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover143.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.7% 50% +7.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.0% 46% -2.6%
15% -16.9% 42% -12.0%
20% -25.1% 40% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$330
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses151 / 147
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)298 / 300
History coverage4d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day143.9
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 298 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Down 55¢ 58¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 112 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $39 +$7 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $17 +$15 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $82 −$5 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $39 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $38 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $91 −$35 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $41 −$14 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 19 $54 +$28 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $56 +$26 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $37 +$10 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $56 −$36 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $80 −$30 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $90 −$37 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$12 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$11 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $40 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $38 +$10 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 19 $42 +$6 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $125 +$29 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 19 $37 +$11 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $17 +$14 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$10 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$11 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $8 +$8 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 18 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$7 +98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$6 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $7 +$7 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $36 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $18 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $17 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $45 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $40 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $32 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $42 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $48 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $39 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $46 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $39 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $46 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $38 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $42 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $35 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $19 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $18 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $38 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $13 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $35 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $41 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $17 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $35 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $35 57m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.36 · official $18.36 (match) · 751 history records