Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:56:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbb9f…b6ac other 139 markets active 2d ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$725 (+0%) realized +$725 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%31W / 108L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$1,309per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$13
14 days−$102
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$516
politics 35% −$73
sports 8% +$1,298
world 3% −$6
economics 2% −$2
culture 2% −$3
tech 1% +$4
finance 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.1% -9.4% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 32 -7.8% -16.6% 12% 3% -9.9%
≤90d 108 -6.9% -15.8% 12% 7% -9.8%
all 139 -0.5% -9.9% 22% 14% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 14% -9.2%
10% -18.6% 14% -17.9%
15% -26.4% 12% -25.8%
20% -33.6% 10% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,537) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$10 · ×5.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$725
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses31 / 108
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage122d
Avg bet$1,309
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $1,276 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,408 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,386 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $328 +$5 +2%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,342 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $5,746 −$6 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,623 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $1,394 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $3,521 −$4 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,286 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $4,283 −$5 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $73 −$73 -100%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,171 −$2 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $61 −$61 -100%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $6,669 −$7 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,031 −$3 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $336 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $727 +$3 +0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 01 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $1,612 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $4,547 −$5 -0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 25 $42 −$42 -100%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $2,177 −$3 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,224 −$2 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $43 +$22 +52%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $4,014 −$5 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,839 −$3 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,011 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,179 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 10 $1,521 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $1,222 −$1 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $1,464 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $1,529 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 25 $1,471 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $2,951 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $6,006 −$6 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $1,491 −$1 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $1,393 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,479 −$1 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,537 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $5,526 −$6 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,543 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,274 39h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,276 41h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,333 41h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,335 44h
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,384 4d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,386 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 98¢ $328 5d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,340 6d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,342 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,385 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,387 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,455 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $1,457 6d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,432 8d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,434 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,392 8d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,394 8d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,158 9d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,160 9d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,285 10d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,286 10d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,409 11d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,411 11d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 56¢ $73 12d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,169 14d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,171 14d
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $61 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,078 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,079 15d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,273 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 470 history records