trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Yes | 59¢ | 81¢ | $900 | $1,246 | +$346 (+38%) |
| Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? | Yes | 50¢ | 49¢ | $600 | $589 | −$11 (-2%) |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 48¢ | 48¢ | $400 | $396 | −$4 (-1%) |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 29¢ | 30¢ | $100 | $102 | +$2 (+2%) |
| Spread: United States (-1.5) | United States | 23¢ | 22¢ | $100 | $93 | −$7 (-7%) |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | Yes | 25¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Spurs | 64¢ | 0¢ | $300 | $0 | −$300 (-100%) |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Thunder | 0¢ | 0¢ | $6 | $0 | −$6 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $36 | $0 | −$36 (-100%) |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Spurs | 58¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Spread: Spurs (-4.5) | Spurs | 65¢ | 0¢ | $410 | $0 | −$410 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Spurs | 33¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | Spurs | 37¢ | 0¢ | $310 | $0 | −$310 (-100%) |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Yes | 12¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | Knicks | 5¢ | 0¢ | $100 | $0 | −$100 (-100%) |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? | Yes | 4¢ | 0¢ | $50 | $0 | −$50 (-100%) |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? | Yes | 3¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) | Korea Republic | 15¢ | 0¢ | $200 | $0 | −$200 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? | Jun 12 | $102 | +$153 | +150% |
| Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) | Jun 11 | $205 | −$200 | -98% |
| Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | Jun 11 | $100 | +$18 | +18% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 11 | $623 | +$667 | +107% |
| Spread: Knicks (-2.5) | Jun 09 | $103 | −$100 | -97% |
| Spurs vs. Knicks | Jun 09 | $305 | +$314 | +103% |
| Spread: Spurs (-6.5) | Jun 06 | $609 | +$375 | +62% |
| Spread: Spurs (-4.5) | Jun 04 | $617 | −$410 | -66% |
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 03 | $303 | −$300 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 31 | $305 | +$419 | +137% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 29 | $367 | −$6 | -2% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 25 | $316 | −$310 | -98% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 25 | $203 | +$155 | +76% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 23 | $101 | −$100 | -99% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 19 | $26 | −$25 | -98% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder | May 19 | $51 | +$100 | +197% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? | May 18 | $38 | −$36 | -94% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? | May 18 | $32 | −$30 | -95% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? | May 18 | $32 | −$30 | -94% |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March | Mar 16 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar | Mar 16 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | Mar 16 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 2, 2026 (ET)? | Feb 25 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 1, 2026 (ET)? | Feb 25 | $50 | −$50 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +34.2% | +21.4% | 71% | 71% | +44.9% |
| ≤30d | 19 | -13.2% | -21.4% | 42% | 42% | +5.9% |
| ≤90d | 22 | -25.0% | -32.2% | 36% | 36% | +1.9% |
| all | 24 | -31.3% | -37.8% | 33% | 33% | -0.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -37.8% | 33% | -0.6% |
| 10% | -43.8% | 29% | -10.1% |
| 15% | -49.2% | 29% | -18.8% |
| 20% | -54.2% | 29% | -26.8% |