Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:48:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbb0…befc crypto 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$160 (-13%) realized −$159 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate37%7W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$219
other 13% −$9
sports 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -29.4% -36.2% 25% 17% -50.2%
≤30d 19 -5.0% -14.0% 37% 32% -28.1%
≤90d 19 -5.0% -14.0% 37% 32% -28.1%
all 19 -5.0% -14.0% 37% 32% -28.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 32% -28.1%
10% -22.3% 21% -35.0%
15% -29.8% 21% -41.3%
20% -36.7% 16% -47.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$33 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$159
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses7 / 12
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage8d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $45 $39 −$6 (-14%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 40¢ $25 $30 +$6 (+23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $42 +$16 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $122 −$54 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 24 $79 +$18 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $17 −$12 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +5%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $5 $0 -4%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $109 −$69 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $118 −$118 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $33 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $25 +$15 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$65 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $191 −$41 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$79 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$21 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 49m
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL No 67¢ $5 50m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $46 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 38¢ $46 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $49 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 29¢ $14 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 38¢ $35 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $38 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $97 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $79 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $15 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 68¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $12 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $11 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $27 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.94 · official $70.49 · 67 history records