Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:25:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbb4…59e7 weather 547 markets active 0h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$8 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate86%469W / 75L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$11
14 days+$22
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 99% +$6
crypto 0% +$2
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 169 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.4%
≤90d 296 -7.6% -16.4% 86% 4% -9.6%
all 544 -1.5% -10.9% 86% 8% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 8% -9.5%
10% -19.4% 5% -18.2%
15% -27.2% 3% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$1,486
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses469 / 75
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)544 / 547
History coverage116d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $800 $800 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $575 $575 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 21? No 100¢ 100¢ $110 $110 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 20? Jun 21 $248 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 21 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 21 $800 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 21 $428 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 1 Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 20 $800 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 75°F or below on June Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 19? Jun 19 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or below on June 18? Jun 18 $541 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 63°F or below on June Jun 18 $699 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on June 17? Jun 18 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 17? Jun 18 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 25°C or below on June Jun 17 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 17? Jun 17 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 16? Jun 17 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 73°F or below on June 15? Jun 16 $127 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 15? Jun 16 $77 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 65°F or below on June 15? Jun 16 $46 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $800 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 15 $800 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 61°F or below on June 1 Jun 15 $800 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on June 14? Jun 15 $546 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C or below on June 14? Jun 15 $800 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 85°F or below on June 12? Jun 13 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $458 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $391 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 75°F or below on June 11? Jun 12 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 12 $367 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $550 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $550 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $5 9m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $56 11m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $29 12m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $40 14m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $208 14m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $237 14m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $459 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $235 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 10h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $8 10h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 11h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $9 13h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $428 16h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $32 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $193 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $110 20h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $800 21h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $800 45h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 59°F or below on June 1 BUY No 100¢ $100 47h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June BUY No 100¢ $59 47h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $95 2d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on June BUY No 100¢ $41 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 61°F or below on June BUY No 100¢ $100 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,486.31 · official $1,485.71 (match) · 1353 history records