Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:20:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BB 0xbbb6…a2fc sports 1113 markets active 1h ago coverage 256d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,789 (-5%) realized −$1,792 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate47%525W / 585L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day10.9pace
Fees−$191est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days−$131
14 days−$327
30 days−$184
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$1,805
crypto 34% −$115
other 1% −$97
world 0% −$23
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -44.4% -49.7% 36% 36% -19.1%
≤30d 134 -10.2% -18.8% 44% 38% -12.2%
≤90d 338 -12.5% -20.8% 39% 34% -16.5%
all 1110 -11.4% -19.9% 47% 39% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 39% -13.8%
10% -27.5% 32% -22.1%
15% -34.5% 25% -29.6%
20% -40.9% 19% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$17 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

256d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$1,792
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses525 / 585
Est. fees paid−$191
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1110 / 1113
History coverage256d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day10.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+30%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 270 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Jun 28 $81 −$1 -2%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $70 +$7 +11%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $65 +$10 +16%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $399 +$68 +17%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 −$24 -48%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 −$17 -61%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $71 −$20 -28%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua Jun 21 $9 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 21 $14 +$7 +49%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 21 $40 −$33 -82%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 21 $31 −$26 -85%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $31 −$22 -72%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 21 $31 −$27 -88%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $26 −$20 -77%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $21 $0 -2%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $31 −$28 -92%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $20 +$21 +105%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 20 $81 −$31 -38%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $126 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $26 +$10 +41%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $2 +$1 +27%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$12 +59%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$4 -7%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $102 −$6 -6%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 20 $36 +$75 +210%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 20 $51 +$53 +104%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 20 $46 +$91 +196%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $55 −$54 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $31 +$11 +36%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $15 +$7 +43%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $7 +$2 +30%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics Jun 19 $21 −$11 -54%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $21 −$14 -69%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 19 $10 −$7 -70%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $50 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO5) - Asia M Jun 18 $10 −$7 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational SELL Karmine Corp 88¢ $80 34m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 89¢ $81 38m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $78 51m
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 90¢ $70 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $76 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 86¢ $65 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 100¢ $467 2h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 85¢ $399 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $11 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 27¢ $27 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 44¢ $25 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $40 6d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 35¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof SELL 100 Thieves 65¢ $50 6d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof BUY 100 Thieves 65¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 75¢ $20 6d
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL roamsfiest 100¢ $21 6d
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs roamsfiest (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY roamsfiest 67¢ $14 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 0¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla SELL Virtus.pro 5¢ $5 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs SELL T1 Academy 5¢ $6 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 20¢ $10 6d
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla BUY Virtus.pro 32¢ $31 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 32¢ $24 6d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 17¢ $26 6d
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs K27 (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qua BUY K27 74¢ $9 6d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY INOX Division 42¢ $41 6d
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League BUY INOX Division 69¢ $20 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 7¢ $9 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.03 · official $33.03 (match) · 2877 history records