Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:32:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbbb…4fe0 other 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 217L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$202per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$17
14 days−$25
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$39
sports 22% −$18
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$5
economics 7% −$5
crypto 6% −$4
world 4% −$4
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 232 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)232 / 232
History coverage127d
Avg bet$202
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 232 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $211 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $383 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $209 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $279 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $461 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $556 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $252 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $272 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $424 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $310 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $122 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $174 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $169 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $514 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $635 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $168 −$1 -1%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $495 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $334 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $221 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $228 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $190 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $387 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $332 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $205 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $319 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $216 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $114 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $121 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $113 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $603 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $289 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $211 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $661 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $121 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $569 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 6h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 7h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 8h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 11h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 13h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 14h
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 15h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $50 17h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $50 18h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 20h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 22h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $33 22h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $17 23h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $17 25h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $8 25h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $9 26h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 28h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 29h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 30h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 32h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 38h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $51 39h
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $51 41h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $51 42h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $51 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1319 history records