Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbc2…6190 crypto 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$37 (-4%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate45%15W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 24% −$12
politics 22% −$5
other 22% −$16
crypto 20% $0
economics 5% −$1
finance 3% −$3
tech 2% $0
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 33 -5.5% -14.5% 45% 0% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 0% -13.2%
10% -22.7% 0% -21.5%
15% -30.2% 0% -29.1%
20% -37.0% 0% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses15 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage587d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 02 $31 $0 +1%
Will Solana reach $140 in April? May 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? May 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? Apr 01 $22 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1200 in January? Feb 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? Jan 01 $35 $0 +0%
Will Spain beat Switzerland? Dec 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $240 in November? Dec 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1? Feb 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will AS Roma win the Serie A? Jan 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland? Jan 26 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? Jan 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jan 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga? Dec 28 $22 −$5 -25%
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 26 $16 −$3 -17%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland? Dec 12 $53 −$2 -4%
Will the Lions win the NFC Championship? Dec 11 $89 −$8 -9%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Dec 11 $107 −$3 -3%
Will Fed cut interest rates 4 times in 2024? Nov 27 $45 −$1 -3%
Will Elena Lasconi win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Nov 27 $35 −$1 -3%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Nov 26 $48 $0 -1%
Will Republicans control 220 seats in the House after the election? Nov 23 $52 −$1 -2%
Pistons vs. Hornets Nov 21 $6 $0 -2%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary? Nov 21 $29 −$3 -9%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024? Nov 21 $16 −$1 -4%
Will Matt Gaetz be Trump's Attorney General? Nov 20 $33 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $38 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 99¢ $31 31d
Will Solana reach $140 in April? BUY No 100¢ $11 62d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 62d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 92d
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 93d
Will Solana dip to $40 in March? BUY No 100¢ $22 93d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $6 123d
Will Solana reach $200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $31 123d
Will BNB reach $1200 in January? BUY No 100¢ $15 151d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 151d
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 182d
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 182d
Will XRP reach $4.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $12 212d
Will Solana reach $240 in November? BUY No 100¢ $17 212d
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1? BUY No 100¢ $18 514d
Will $Trump FDV be $50b or more on Feb 1? BUY No 100¢ $11 514d
Will AS Roma win the Serie A? SELL No 100¢ $32 517d
Will AS Roma win the Serie A? BUY No 100¢ $32 517d
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland? SELL No 99¢ $12 517d
Will Marek Jakubiak be the next President of Poland? BUY No 100¢ $12 517d
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? SELL No 99¢ $20 518d
Will the Utah Jazz win the Western Conference? BUY No 100¢ $20 518d
Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany? SELL No 100¢ $34 520d
Will Jan van Aken be the next Chancellor of Germany? BUY No 100¢ $34 520d
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 546d
Will Villarreal CF win La Liga? BUY Yes 0¢ $22 546d
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $13 548d
Will Sturm Graz win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes 1¢ $16 548d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.92 · official $37.92 (match) · 82 history records