Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T03:26:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
BB 0xbbc8…4f5b sports 439 markets active 0h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (155 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,584 (-14%) realized −$3,589 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate47%206W / 230L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day155.5pace
Fees−$134est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$222
7 days−$3,842
14 days−$3,922
30 days−$3,922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$1,938
sports 34% −$2,171
other 10% +$190
finance 0% +$4
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (155 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 388 -5.0% -14.0% 48% 42% -23.7%
≤30d 436 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 41% -23.7%
≤90d 436 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 41% -23.7%
all 436 -6.8% -15.7% 47% 41% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover155.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.7% 41% -23.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 32% -31.0%
15% -31.1% 23% -37.7%
20% -37.9% 17% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -16% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$38 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized−$3,589
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses206 / 230
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$134
Open positions3
Markets (closed)436 / 439
History coverage14d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day155.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 436 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win? Yes 43¢ 59¢ $25 $35 +$9 (+37%)
Edmonton Elks vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Edmonton Elks 95¢ 68¢ $11 $8 −$3 (-28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET Down 16¢ 14¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra Jun 26 $48 +$40 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9PM ET Jun 26 $77 +$26 +34%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 26 $47 −$46 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $110 +$19 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 −$8 -81%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Tunisia to win the second half? Jun 26 $37 +$7 +20%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 6.5 Jun 26 $360 +$41 +11%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $60 +$28 +47%
Valorant: Team Solid vs TBK Esports (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Play-In Jun 26 $33 +$2 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $16 +$2 +14%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET Jun 25 $86 +$49 +58%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 7PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $32 +$26 +81%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$1 +12%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America Leag Jun 25 $2 +$1 +29%
Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $34 +$8 +25%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Celia Cervino Ruiz Jun 25 $10 +$14 +141%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $40 −$38 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5PM ET Jun 25 $209 −$158 -76%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $29 +$3 +10%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $65 +$15 +22%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $112 −$112 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $8 −$1 -17%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$8 -31%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$6 -39%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 25 $7 +$3 +44%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$5 -18%
Major League Cricket: San Francisco Unicorns vs Texas Super Kings Jun 25 $24 +$4 +17%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$40 +261%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $109 −$33 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12AM ET Jun 25 $88 +$5 +6%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 25 $12 −$11 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET Jun 25 $198 +$17 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11PM ET Jun 25 $48 −$3 -5%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$2 -30%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $27 +$3 +11%
South Africa to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 25 $3 −$1 -20%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 25 $64 −$5 -8%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $7 −$7 -97%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -77%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 25 $73 +$41 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET Jun 25 $194 +$49 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 8PM ET Jun 25 $75 +$9 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Edmonton Elks vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers BUY Edmonton Elks 96¢ $10 0m
Edmonton Elks vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers BUY Edmonton Elks 90¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $30 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $32 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $25 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET SELL Down 55¢ $28 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $17 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $19 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 25m
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $7 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 1h
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.10 · official $46.24 · 2342 history records