Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T16:51:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
BB 0xbbc9…d80b crypto 499 markets active 0h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$757 (-2%) realized −$756 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate78%371W / 104L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$171est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2,484now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$67
7 days+$58
14 days−$604
30 days−$1,028
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% −$980
world 28% +$392
crypto 21% −$23
other 5% −$114
politics 3% +$38
tech 1% +$27
economics 1% +$1
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -5.9% -14.8% 67% 16% -8.7%
≤30d 196 -7.6% -16.4% 67% 20% -14.2%
≤90d 266 -0.7% -10.1% 67% 23% -12.2%
all 475 -1.0% -10.4% 78% 16% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 16% -11.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 10% -20.1%
15% -26.8% 7% -27.8%
20% -34.0% 6% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$33 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$2,484
Realized−$756
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses371 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$171
Open positions24
Markets (closed)475 / 499
History coverage119d ⚠
Avg bet$66
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 475 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 63¢ 60¢ $1,156 $1,099 −$57 (-5%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $443 $473 +$30 (+7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 94¢ 93¢ $237 $234 −$3 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $119 $132 +$13 (+11%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? No 89¢ 98¢ $78 $85 +$7 (+10%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? No 78¢ 88¢ $54 $62 +$8 (+14%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 96¢ $57 $58 +$2 (+3%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 80¢ 89¢ $50 $55 +$6 (+11%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 89¢ 94¢ $51 $55 +$3 (+6%)
Will Sweden be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? No 80¢ 91¢ $47 $54 +$7 (+14%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 88¢ 99¢ $39 $44 +$5 (+13%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 98¢ 99¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 25? No 92¢ 98¢ $19 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 60¢ 42¢ $29 $20 −$9 (-31%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 25¢ 12¢ $14 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Donald Trump attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Yes $9 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 87¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+14%)
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time? Yes 81¢ 88¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 72¢ 38¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $91 +$8 +9%
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? Jun 25 $23 +$4 +17%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 in June? Jun 25 $23 $0 +1%
Zheng vs. Wang: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 25 $8 +$1 +11%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 25 $17 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 24? Jun 25 $9 $0 +0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $7 $0 +1%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $11 $0 +1%
Map Handicap: 9INE (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) Jun 24 $29 $0 +1%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $71 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $13 $0 +2%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 24 $20 −$2 -9%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $47 −$3 -7%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Jun 24 $74 −$5 -7%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 24 $60 +$7 +11%
Will Solana dip to $50 in June? Jun 24 $23 $0 -1%
ITF Maanshan: Xi Luo vs Jiayu Xu Jun 24 $649 +$60 +9%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 11.5 Jun 24 $7 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 24 $107 +$1 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $7 $0 +1%
ITF Asuncion: Ana Filipa Santos vs Emily Zornada Jun 23 $5 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $200 on June 23? Jun 23 $4 $0 -1%
Starodubtseva vs. Zakharova: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $7 $0 +2%
Starodubtseva vs. Zakharova: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $22 $0 +2%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 23 $6 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $127 +$3 +3%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 22 $128 −$63 -49%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 22 $780 +$5 +1%
Will Paraguay be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 22 $50 $0 +1%
Will Paraguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 22 $97 $0 -0%
Will Norway be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 22 $15 $0 -2%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $5 −$1 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 22 $41 −$5 -11%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $16 −$2 -14%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $97 −$49 -51%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $71 +$14 +20%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 22 $398 +$140 +35%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $106 +$17 +16%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $62 +$12 +20%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $48 −$29 -61%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $58 +$7 +12%
IR Tanger vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $67 +$1 +1%
IR Tanger vs. RCA Zemamra: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $8 $0 +1%
Zeynep Sonmez vs. Elsa Jacquemot: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $17 $0 +1%
Set 2 Winner: Molcan vs Cassone Jun 21 $17 $0 +2%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $101 +$1 +1%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $128 −$128 -100%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 20 $20 +$5 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 95¢ $6 8m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 94¢ $37 21m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $10 42m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 92¢ $5 42m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 92¢ $0 49m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 92¢ $21 50m
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 92¢ $11 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 92¢ $10 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 92¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 92¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 92¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 92¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 92¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 92¢ $2 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 91¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 91¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 91¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 91¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 91¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 91¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 91¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 91¢ $0 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? SELL No 90¢ $11 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $295 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $148 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 25? BUY No 83¢ $18 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,484.19 · official $2,483.96 (match) · 3500 history records